WIMBLEDON continues on Tuesday. Here tennis analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) shares his favourite fancies from Day 2 at SW19.
Wimbledon | Day 1 Recap
Carina Witthoeft somehow landed a win for us on Day 1. The German looked well on top as she led by a set and a break before Lucic-Baroni’s hot-streak started.
The Croatian is unplayable when she gets a head of steam and fought back not only to take the second set but to hold an unassailable 5/0 lead in the final set.
At that point I had updated my Excel with some red ink to mark a loss, but Our Carina wasn’t done and she kept the pressure on a choking Lucic-Baroni, eventually taking the match 8/6.
The selection of Richel Hogenkamp to beat Madison Brengle didn’t work out. The Netherlander barely tested one of the weakest serves on the tour, and made a lot of easy errors.
We were unfortunate on our value play of Natalia Vikhlyantseva. The Russian was backed in significantly from around 6/4 to 4/5 by the start of the match. She suffered a nasty fall that required 15 minutes of medical treatment and her performance understandably dipped as the match went on.
Dusan Lajovic v Stefanos Tsitsipas | Tuesday 15:00 | BBC
I would be surprised if bookmakers priced up Dusan Lajovic to be favoured over me on a grass court, never mind the talented youngster Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas is a former junior world number one and has had some decent exposure to the main tour this season, receiving wild cards for several events and fighting his way through qualifying at both the French Open and Wimbledon.
The young Greek player has yet to win a main tour match, but he has not had as plum a draw as this. Last year Tsitsipas was playing in the Boy’s singles where he was beaten in the semifinals by eventual champion Denis Shapovalov.
Lajovic has an abysmal record on grass, winning only two of his 16 career matches on the surface. The Serbian is a weak player away from clay courts, possessing no real weaponry and a serve that is ripe for attack.
Tsitsipas produced impressive numbers on his serve in the qualifying rounds. Go for Tsitsipas to win at 6/5 with William Hill.
Julia Boserup v Shelby Rogers | Tuesday 15:00 | BBC
A couple of American journey-women meet in the second round of Wimbledon, and odds compilers have got this one wrong favouring Shelby Rogers to defeat Julia Boserup.
We are not talking about players of a particularly brilliant level, but looking at my data I see a clear and consistent advantage for Boserup over Rogers on this surface.
Rogers has been priced largely on her recent form that saw her have her second consecutive decent run at the French Open. However, since she stepped on to grass courts – as has always been the case – Rogers is a diminished force.
Since 2014 her win/loss record on grass is Won 4, Lost 10 and she has never won a match in the main draw of Wimbledon.
Boserup made a name for herself at Wimbledon last year when from qualifying she won through to the 3rd round, pushing eventual semi-finalist Elena Vesnina deep in both sets. It’s true that her grass court form so far this season has been poor, but she has the better grass court pedigree.
Try Boserup to win at 6/4 with Paddy Power.
Dominic Thiem v Vasek Pospisil | Tuesday 17:00 | BBC
We may see another Wimbledon upset when Dominic Thiem takes to court against Vasek Pospisil.
The Austrian had a brilliant few months on the clay, but is a very different beast on faster surfaces. On clay he can bully opponents with his powerful swings overwhelming even the likes of Djokovic and Nadal this season.
On grass Thiem struggles to control the ball and he is a player that has the ability to drop his serve through lack of concentration. You don’t get away with that on grass courts.
Last week Thiem lost to the 221st ranked player of the world on this surface – yes, it may not have been his best effort but it doesn’t mislead entirely from his level on grass.
Thiem said of that defeat, “The surface was really fast, I couldn’t find myself into the match and failed miserably” – hardly words that inspire a successful Wimbledon is on the cards.
This is not only a bet against Thiem, as Vasek Pospisil is a very competent grass court player. He serves big, can work from the back of the court and also make his way to the net. He made the quarter final of s’Hertogenbosch and in 2015 he made the quarterfinals of Wimbledon dispatching a couple of seeds along the way.
Analysing the performance statistics over the past two years there is not much to choose between them, with Pospisil marginally the better at holding his serve. They met once in 2015 with Thiem winning a final set tie break in Munich, an event that Thiem went on to win last year.
It could be a close one and even if Thiem pulls it out, he rarely does so with room to spare.
I like Pospisil to win the match at 9/4 with SunBets.
Dusan Lajovic v Stefanos Tsitsipas – Stefanos Tsitsipas to win (6/5 William Hill)
Julia Boserup v Shelby Rogers – Julia Boserup to win (6/4 Paddy Power)
Dominic Thiem v Vasek Pospisil – Vasek Pospisil to win (9/4 SunBets)