Wimbledon: Attacking Italian could oust weakened Keys on Wednesday

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WIMBLEDON continues on Wednesday. Here tennis analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) shares his favourite fancies from Day 3 at SW19.

Wimbledon | Day 2 Recap

It is safe to say Day 2 of Wimbledon went better for our outright bets than our match bets as Coco Vandeweghe, Lucie Safarova and Karolina Pliskova all came through their first round matches comfortably.

The match bets didn’t work out. Vasek Pospisil was never really in his match with Dominic Thiem, with the big Canadian dropping serve all too easily under the slightest bit of pressure.

Stefanos Tsitsipas looked to be a smart choice on paper against a player that is woeful at holding serve on a grass court and that has a long term losing record on that surface. He had plenty of chances but criminally failed to break Dusan Lajovic even once over the course of three sets.

Julia Boserup is another who had her chances and failed to take them. Boserup had ample break point opportunities in both the first and third sets that she lost but often found an unforced error at the inopportune moment.

I am hoping for better on Wednesday. All selections are made using data that I research and compile as well additional information relevant to a betting selection.

Using such methods I am well up for the season as long-term readers of my outright column for WLB are aware.

Venus Williams v Qiang Wang | Wednesday 15:00 | BBC

Venus Williams is having a hellish month.

The elder sister of Serena was involved in a traffic accident that caused the death of a man in Florida. When asked by reporters about the incident Williams broke down in tears during her press conference. It is hard to believe that her eyes are on the prize this year.

Her opponent is Qiang Wang who has made a big leap up the rankings in the past 12 months, now sitting comfortably in the top 50. The pair met last month at Roland Garros with Venus eventually winning 6-4, 7-6.

In that match Wang led by a break in each set and made a good job of tempting errors from the Williams racket.

Despite her great record Venus rarely gets the job done easily at Wimbledon, having been pushed to third sets or winning by only a couple of games when considering handicaps.

Given everything that has gone on, the close match that they recently played and Williams track record I see some value in taking Wang with a +4.5 game head-start that pays out at over evens with Marathon.

Back Qiang Wang +4.5 Games with Marathon at 17/16. This handicap has landed in 10 of Williams last 14 Wimbledon matches – since the start of 2014.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert v Benoit Paire | Wednesday 16:00 | BBC

Pierre-Hugues Herbert is currently rated as the outsider to win against his compatriot Benoit Paire. However, I disagree with this position.

Herbert is an old school serve-volleyer that relishes the grass court season, an attitude in stark contrast to that of Paire.

Paire is a volatile character who quickly throws tantrums when things aren’t going his own way. He does not possess the concentration to keep up with a big server on the grass, nor does he like the inconsistent bounces of a grass court.

Herbert knows his opponent well saying of their match-up, “You never know with Benoit. He can play very well or things can.. go awry sometimes.”

Herbert has to keep the scoreboard ticking over by holding his serve and he will get moments of opportunity against Paire who was an unimpressive winner over veteran clay courter Rogerio Dutra Silva in Round 1 dropping his serve five times in total.

Both these guys have a penchant for playing four or five-setters in Grand Slam events, and I’d rather be on the side of the cooler head should it go deep. Back Herbert at 11/10 with Unibet.

Camila Giorgi v Madison Keys | Wednesday 17:00 | BBC

It is worth a play on Camila Giorgi here.

The Italian is an attacking player that is at home on a faster surface. She blows very hot and very cold as was emphasised in her first round encounter with Alize Cornet when she trailed by five Games to love before storming back.

Keys hasn’t played a lot of tennis recently and when she has it hasn’t been particularly impressive.

To add to her problems Keys had surgery on her left wrist after the French Open and has stated that the condition is far from perfect, which has hampered her preparations.

Giorgi can take advantage of Keys weakened state. Back her at 13/8 with Bet365.

Best Bets

Venus Williams v Qiang Wang – Qiang Wang +4.5 games (17/16 Marathon)

Pierre-Hugues Herbert v Benoit Paire – Pierre-Hugues Herbert to win (11/10 Unibet)

Camila Giorgi v Madison Keys – Camila Giorgi to win (13/8 Bet365)

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