SCOTTISH football bible Willie Duncan (@Willie_Duncan) is back with his best bet from north of the border this weekend.
Motherwell v Inverness | Saturday 15:00
The destination of the Scottish Premiership title has already been decided (there is a reasonable argument that it was decided months ago), but there is still uncertainty as to which top-flight team will be plying their trade in the Championship next season.
Inverness are currently bottom of the table and this weekend – the final set of fixtures before the Premiership splits into two mini-leagues of six – Richie Foran’s men travel to take on 11th placed Motherwell at Fir Park.
The Lanarkshire side have a four-point advantage over the Caley Jags and victory here would give Motherwell a massive seven-point cushion with just five games remaining.
Robinson yet to reap rewards
Motherwell, though, are not exactly in fine form and the decision to ditch Mark McGhee and replace the Scotland assistant boss with Stephen Robinson has yet to reap rewards.
The Fir Park club are in deep trouble, for they have won just three of their last 20 matches in all competitions and they’ve had some horrible results in that sequence – a 7-2 defeat to Aberdeen and a 5-1 home loss against Dundee stand out.
Caley less than super
Inverness were, for long enough, the only team to have taken points from Celtic in the Premiership this season (Rangers and Partick Thistle have since joined that select club).
But Foran’s side really are in a rut; the Caley Jags have enjoyed just two wins since the end of October – and one of those victories came against Elgin City in the Scottish Cup.
There is, therefore, little to suggest that fabulous, free-flowing football will be on show at Fir Park on Saturday afternoon and the stage is set for a war of attrition rather than a festival of football.
Goals in short supply
Inverness have managed more than one goal in just one of their last nine matches and you’d have to go back to Hogmanay for the last time that Foran’s side scored more than once on their travels in the Premiership – and that one ended in a 3-2 defeat in Dingwall against Ross County.
Motherwell, too, are struggling in the final third; Robinson’s side have failed to ripple the rigging in three of their last five fixtures and they haven’t won at home since beating the other Thistle (Partick) back in November.
Backing a tight, tense affair between two teams who are desperate for points, but seemingly lacking in the quality required to win them, looks like a sensible solution and it is the 19/20 (BetStars) quote for Saturday’s showdown to produce fewer than three goals that could offer best value for punters.
Motherwell v Inverness – Under 2.5 Goals (19/20 BetStars)