OUR Saturday 3pm man, Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79), is back with his three best bets from Saturday’s Premier League card.
Man City v Crystal Palace | Saturday 12:30 | Sky Sports 1
The opening match on Saturday brings together two sides with different aims. Man City will be looking to further lodge their Top 4 claims while Crystal Palace will be looking to put to bed any relegation chat.
There’s only one side I’m interested in here and it’s the side who’ve performed the better of the two in recent weeks. Crystal Palace.
In the last 10 Premier League games Palace have picked up 19 points while City have won 17. The London side are as big as 11/1 to win this match, and while that’s probably beyond them, they look a great shout on the handicaps.
Palace have already beaten Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal in this run and are probably this big a price because they’ve lost their last two matches.
The first loss against Spurs was entirely excusable but last Saturday’s loss to Burnley was a perplexing one. Perhaps the players thought they were safe and took their foot off the pedal.
You can be assured Sam Allardyce would have ripped into them this week and demanded they end the season on a high. I expect them to do that.
Man City have been a huge disappointment this season and Pep Guardiola is going to face serious pressure next season in his position.
If we look at the period of this 10 game run then City have been knocked out the FA Cup by Arsenal, failed to beat Stoke and Middlesbrough, were no match for Chelsea and showed little verve in their recent draw with Manchester United. Is this a side you want to be punting at 3/10? Not for me.
Palace +1.5 look well worth a punt at odds against 13/11 with 888 Sport. I’d far rather have them carrying my money than Manchester City.
Bournemouth v Stoke | Saturday 15:00
No side have had more Over 3.5 Goals game this season in England than Bournemouth. I’m going against those stats on Saturday and backing Under 2.5 Goals as they host Stoke.
I think I’d rather run a marathon, spend the day knitting or paint my house from top to bottom than watch this match. It looks thoroughly unappealing.
At the heart of that negative thought is Stoke. My old pals have been a great team to back this season but they’ve clearly run out of juice.
Just like last season they’re falling over the line and unfortunately it’s unlikely to give them a Top 10 finish if it continues.
It’s one win in eight for Stoke, five defeats in seven and blanks in four of their last six games. It’s fair to say the countdown to end of term is on.
Swansea have scored more goals than Stoke this season and they’ve scored more than one in a game on just two occasions in the last 14.
Opponents Bournemouth lie two places and one point ahead of them and are surely now safe after two straight wins against Middlesbrough and Sunderland respectively.
Bournemouth are definitely conducive to a goal-laden game but with both sides not engaged in any pressing matters and Stoke being awkward opponents Unders looks big.
Three of the last six games at the Vitality went Under and while the stats don’t support me too much with regard to Bournemouth, I’m happy to go Under with Stoke involved.
Hull v Sunderland| Saturday 15:00
After all they’ve been through this year, it’s remarkable to see Hull around the 1/2 mark in a Premier League match. But then again they’re playing Sunderland.
While the Black Cats are already down, there’s everything for Hull to play for on Saturday. A win would put them five points clear of the relegation zone and homing in on survival.
On paper they should get the job no bother. Since Marco Silva came in as boss the Humbersiders they’ve won six of their seven home games and taken out much better sides than their opponents here.
Sunderland are awful. After stinking the place out for most of the decade they’ve finally succumbed to relegation and arrive here with no wins in 10 and with eight of those defeats.
The big news coming out the club on Friday was that David Moyes will be staying on at the club and I’m not sure how that will go down in the dressing room.
I suspect we might see a decent performance from Sunderland on Saturday. They’ve nothing to play for and hopefully can now play with a bit of freedom.
This might be a tougher game that we suspect for Hull and I’d been keen to be low on goals here. Rather than going Under 2.5 I’ll back 2-3 goals in the Total Goals market at 21/20 with 888 Sport. That should protect me from a Sunderland goal and runaway Hull win of the 3-0 ilk.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace - Crystal Palace +1.5 (13/11 888 Sport)
Bournemouth v Stoke – Under 2.5 Goals (13/12 888 Sport)
Hull v Sunderland – Exactly 2-3 Goals (21/20 888 Sport)
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