OUR Correct Score man Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) delivers his best bets from this weekend’s action.
Hull v Sunderland | Saturday 15:00
From a fans perspective this is undoubtedly the most enjoyable time of the Premier League season, with so much at stake at both ends of the table.
Unfortunately, from the viewpoint of the punter it is far trickier as some teams have far more to play for than others. Bookies understand this but there is still value to be had where you believe that this is over or understated.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but on reflection it certainly looks like the theory that West Ham had far less motivation than Tottenham on Friday night was wide of the mark as folk that took the 8/1 on a victory for the Hammers will have seen their coffers swell.
17th placed Hull clearly have greater incentive than their opponents this afternoon. Whilst their Premier League status is still in their own hands, Sunderland have already been consigned to Championship status next term.
At the time of writing you will struggle to get much bigger than 1/2 on a victory for the home side, which must be pretty close to the shortest price they have ever been for victory in this league.
Hull fans with a decent recent memory will be far from complacent, however, as it is almost exactly two years to the day since a home loss to Burnley – who were relegated on that day despite victory – ultimately cost them their Premier League status.
Whilst I do, therefore, find the match odds quite prohibitive, I still believe that Hull will win the game and have therefore looked at the correct score market to find some value.
Much has been made of Hull’s excellent home form under Marco Silva (19 points from seven league games at present) and despite the potentially nervy atmosphere at the KC today it is hard to make a case for them avoiding victory.
Hull have two 2-0 victories in that run and a further two wins by two goals to one. 2-0 is 7/1 with Bet365 and 2-1 is 8/1 with the same firm. Sunderland have lost 6/18 of their away games by these scorelines suggesting that you are getting value.
Given that The Mackems have failed to score in nine of their last ten games I would advise putting a little more on the 2-0 margin, although I suppose they are due one!
Leicester v Watford | Saturday 15:00
With both sides on 40 points already, only the most pessimistic of Leicester or Watford supporters could make a case for their side needing more points to guarantee survival.
Certainly, if there is any nervousness among fans it does not seem to have been reflected in the efforts of the Watford players in recent weeks as they certainly seem ready for their deckchairs!
Leicester have gained 19 points from nine games since Craig Shakespeare replaced Claudio Ranieri. That is nine points more than their opponents have managed in the same timeframe so it is clear who has the better recent form.
Shakespeare’s side have won their last two home games by a margin of two goals to nil so I think the 7/1 Bet365 are offering on them making it three out of three is good value.
It is also the scoreline that Watford have been on the wrong end of on their travels on five occasions this season and unfortunately I cannot make the case for anything other than another weak surrender today.