BUNDESLIGA boff Tom Loveys (@ValueBetMethods) returns to shares his favourite fancies from the weekend action in Germany.
Augsburg v Koln | Saturday 14:30
Koln visit the WWK Arena in Augsburg hoping to improve on their current position of 7th and make an impact on the European slots.
The Billy Goats are a point behind Freiburg and three behind 5th place Hertha as an assault on next season’s Europa League continues.
Koln are heavily reliant on Anthony Modeste who has scored an amazing 23 goals this season, 17 ahead of the next Koln player, Osako and he’ll be hoping for plenty of chances against an Augsburg side who have conceded 45 goals already this season, 23 of which at home.
Augsburg sit perilously close to automatic relegation, a point ahead of 17th place Ingolstadt and with 13 losses from 28 games, their season has been particularly poor.
With only three wins at home and the worst home record of all the Bundesliga clubs, the fans at the WWK Arena haven’t had much to cheer about and Saturday doesn’t look much easier either.
Koln are best priced 43/25 to take the three points, but with only three away wins to their name so far, the sensible choice will be to look at the DNB market, where Koln can be backed at 23/25 to get the win with our stake refunded should the match finish all-square.
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt | Saturday 14:30
Difficult to know how the terrible events on Tuesday will effect the home side here. They’ll be reliant on their amazing support and after going down by an odd goal in five against Monaco in the Champions League, Saturday represents a chance to build on the league where they have now dropped to 4th position behind Bayern, Leipzig and Hoffenheim.
With 10 wins and three draws in their 13 home games, it’s difficult to find a value betting angle for the hosts. However, Frankfurt have lost 10 games this season, eight of which were away from home and are the second lowest scorers on their travels having only found the net nine times this season.
Their home form has virtually assured safety and there is a possibility there isn’t much to play for. I like the BTTS No option, which looks overpriced at 21/20.
With Frankfurt having failed to trouble the scoreboard in 5/6 away games and four of the last six Dortmund games only seeing one side score, I hope this angle could prove the answer.
Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich | Saturday 17:30 | BT Sport 2
Bayern will want to bounce straight back after going down to Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday. They are 10 points clear at the top and usually this fixture would represent one of their toughest challenges of the season.
However, Leverkusen have had a season to try and forget, they sit in 12th position and have lost 13/28 games this season. They will want to provide a test for the Champions Elect to put some pride back into their season.
Prices for Bayern are again restricted as expected, but an angle that could offer some value is Under 2.5 goals at 69/50. Bayern haven’t demolished teams away from home this season with 8/14 seeing under three goals and four of the last six, so there appears some life in this bet.
Leverkusen won’t be forcing the game here and will want to keep it as tight as possible. With 5/6 H2H meetings, including a 0-0 last season being Under 2.5, it’s an position that could give us some Saturday evening joy.
Augsburg v Koln – Koln Draw No Bet (23/25 Marathon Bet)
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt – Both Teams To Score No (21/20 BetVictor)
Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich – Under 2.5 Goals (69/50 Marathon Bet)