OUR Saturday 3pm man, Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79), is back with his three best bets from the Premier League card.
Burnley v Tottenham | Saturday 15:00
This looks a real puzzle. Burnley’s home form has been superb this season but will the intensity still be there at this late point of the season?
Spurs are a wonderful force of nature who should always be respected when priced up at 7/10 against a bottom half side, but their away form has been patchy and there’s no Harry Kane for them this Saturday.
Burnley have picked up 29 points in the league this season, 26 of them have come from Turf Moor games and they’ve beaten Liverpool, Everton and champion Leicester there.
Sean Dyche’s side are unbeaten in six league games on home soil and have won five of those fixtures. The only dropped points came when drawing with champions elect Chelsea.
Dovetail these facts into Spurs’s away form and the case is there for Burnley. Tottenham have won just 18 points on the road this season and have won just two of their last 10 away league games.
Points have been dropped at Sunderland, Bournemouth and West Brom within that run and you’d have to rank Burnley’s home form stronger than the first two on the list.
Another big negative for Spurs is the fact that Harry Kane is out for the forseeable along with important defender Danny Rose. It makes backing them less appealing.
The only thing that would put me off Burnley would be the fact the season is winding down. Their primary aim of staying up looks almost secure now so can we expect the same intensity? I suppose we have to have faith in their brilliant manager Sean Dyche to keep them focussed.
Burnley +1 on the Asians is 13/18 with 888 Sport and it’s a route I’m happy to take. Spurs are certainly capable blitzing sides in this division but without Kane they may be blunted.
Chelsea v Crystal Palace | Saturday 15:00
Chelsea clinched the 2014/15 title when up against Crystal Palace and there are more parallels to that season with Chelsea at the moment.
In the second half of that campaign under Jose Mourinho, Chelsea dropped down the gears in the home straight and grinded their way to the title.
It might seem a bit harsh on Antonio Conte’s side but I see similar traits this time round. Their last two wins were one goal margin victories over West Ham and Stoke and two games before that they drew with Burnley. It’s more Sea The Stars than Frankel.
So with those thoughts in mind I’ve hooked my hat over the 2-3 goals spread in Chelsea matches in recent weeks. I had a near miss in the 3-1 win over Swansea but it obliged two weeks ago against Stoke.
The 2-3 goals bet has paid out in five of the last seven Chelsea league matches and Crystal Palace seem the ideal opponents to maintain this trend.
Manager Sam Allardyce has sorted out their porous defence and the Eagles have kept three clean sheets in a row. February 11th was the last time the South London club conceded.
Famously Palace beat Watford last week without recording a shot on target and the fear with this bet is Chelsea only winning 1-0 as defence becomes a priority for Palace.
I’ll take my chances though and at 21/20 with 888 Sport it looks a fair price. Exciting match? Not at all, but if it plays to form I’ll collect here at Stamford Bridge.
Hull v West Ham | Saturday 15:00
The race to avoid relegation looked very exciting at the start of March with up to seven sides in the soup, but since then it’s very much solidified to the detriment of three sides.
It will surely be the case that the majority of people asked about which sides will go down will come up with the tricast of Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Hull.
Of those three sides it’s Hull who look the most promising. That promise centres around their home form which continues to give them hope of staying up.
Since Christmas Day, Hull are unbeaten in seven at the KC and the likes of Manchester United (beaten), Liverpool (beaten) and Hull (drew) have all had a rough ride there.
Having taken down those sides why would the Tigers fear West Ham? The Hammers are marooned in mid-table and under a cloud just now.
It’s three defeats in a row for West Ham and no wins in five matches. There are rumours of Slaven Bilic being shown the door come the summer and the vibes aren’t great at the club.
Scoring goals though are no issue for the East London side. Despite this bad run they’ve notched in six straight games and lie 9th in the scorers chart (three places above their real position).
Mesh those stats with the fact Hull have kept just two clean sheets in their last 12 matches and goals become an intoxicating betting proposition.
Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in the last three Hull games and in nine of the last 10 West Ham matches. I’ll be backing it here at 6/7 with 888 Sport.