OUR Saturday 3pm man, Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79), is back with his three best bets from the Premier League card.
Man City v Hull | Saturday 15:00
What a woeful season it’s been for Man City and Pep Guardiola. Say what you like, but if this scenario was presented to the club last July when the Spaniard picked up the reins there would have been mass disappointment.
Sent off title favourites, with the manager’s hefty reputation bulking up their hopes, they came out the stalls in fine fashion and won their opening 10 matches of the season.
After failing to beat Celtic in the Champions League they never really rediscovered that winning thread and come into this game with no win in four and clinging onto a Top 4 berth. Poor.
My angle in this match is to get with Hull. Three wins in their last four, they’ve come out the relegation zone for the first time in six months. It’s huge credit to new manager Marco Silva.
Now, the catch with Hull of course is that they can’t win away from home. It’s 13 without a win on the road in the Premier League and 12 of those have been defeats. Very grim figures.
It may be that Silva is just focusing on the home games and treating anything from away games as a bonus. In that sense Saturday is a free hit.
If you look at Hull’s recent away form it’s not too bad. 2-0 losses at Chelsea and Arsenal preceded a 3-1 defeat at revitalised Leicester and you can add a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford into the mix.
The match that looks bad is their last one – a 4-0 loss at Goodison Park. In truth though it was a scoreline that hugely flattered Everton.
With the scores at 1-0 Tom Huddlestone was sent off for Hull and the floodgates were unlocked by Romelu Lukaku. 4-0 was very harsh.
I looked at Hull +2 on the Asians but instead I’ll dip into my favourite market and back them simply to score at 16/19 with 888 Sport.
The Tigers should be buoyant after climbing up to 17th and Man City have leaked in 22 of their 30 matches this Premier League season.
Stoke v Liverpool | Saturday 15:00
As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of Stoke, but this might be an opportune moment to take them on at a fairly attractive price.
I must say I expected Liverpool to be a bit shorter than the 19/20 they’ve been chalked up at for this match at the Bet365 on Saturday.
Chelsea last month were as short as 4/7 to win at Stoke and while I have huge respect for Mark Hughes’ side I feel this could be a price to get with Liverpool.
Two things put me off the Potters. Firstly, their record against the Top 6 this season reads P10 W0 D3 L7. One of the reasons I like backing them is they tend to play to form beating sides above and losing to ones below them.
Their form also dropped off a cliff at the end of last season once mid-table meandering was confirmed. They won just two of their last 10 league fixtures and a repeat could occur again (let’s not forget they replicated their poor start to 2015/16 season this time round).
There are reasons to oppose Liverpool of course but Wednesday’s draw against Bournemouth has been a blip up against their recent performances.
With Stoke struggling against the Top 6 this season I’m willing to chance Liverpool here at 19/20. It’s bound to be a grind but surely their appetite and work rate will be there.
West Brom v Southampton | Saturday 15:00
West Brom are 11/5 to win this game. It’s just too big and an angle must be found to support them.
Just one place separates these sides in the division but the Baggies are seven points ahead of Southampton in the table and for me have looked a better team this campaign.
We’re getting to the end of the season now and neither of these sides have much to play so one is taking a chance on forming a strong view.
My view emanates purely from West Brom and their record of nine home wins out of 15 this season. They’ve won eight of their last 10 league matches at The Hawthorns and Arsenal have been amongst their victims.
It’s true to suggest that the majority of their wins have come against bottom half sides but Southampton have hardly looked a rock solid top half unit this campaign.
I’m not going to delve into Southampton because this bet purely relates to the price of West Brom. At 2/1, it means I can back them at 7/6 on the Draw No Bet with 888 Sport.
When you slightly favour the home side without looking at the odds, the prices available make backing them a no-brainer. They’re too big.
Man City v Hull – Hull to score Over 0.5 Goals (16/19 888 Sport)
Stoke v Liverpool – Liverpool to win (7/8 888 Sport)
West Brom v Southampton – West Brom Draw No Bet (7/6 888 Sport)
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