Liverpool v Burnley: Reds to edge the Clarets in high-scoring contest

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WILL DYER (@w2Dyer) puts forth his take on Liverpool’s home Premier League tie with Burnley on Sunday.

Liverpool v Burnley | Sunday 16:00 | Sky Sports 1

Sean Dyche takes his Burnley side to Anfield on Sunday, attempting to complete their first double over the Reds since 1930 and record their first Merseyside triumph since 1974.

Back in August, Liverpool recorded the highest ever possession percentage (81%) in a Premier League game yet found a way to lose 2-0. Something that has set the tone for their season.

Against top half sides in 2016/17, Liverpool average more points per-game than they do against the bottom half. It was the same story under Brendan Rodgers in the 2014/15 season; at the same stage of that campaign, they were averaging 1.92 points per-game against the top half but only 1.74 against bottom half clubs.

Classic ‘Pool

Burnley at home then, has the look of another game that Liverpool could make a meal of. However, the Clarets haven’t won a single away game this season, drawing two and losing 13.

Whilst Liverpool have a W9-D3-L1 record at Anfield. Their classy 3-1 win against Arsenal last weekend also sent them to the top of the scoring charts with 58 goals in 27 games.

The most impressive part of Liverpool’s attacking ability is that they don’t have a striker taking the lion’s share of the goals. All of their league rivals, except for Manchester City, have a forward who’s scored 15 or more.

The closest the Reds get to that is Sadio Mane on 12 but he is more of a winger and very much a team player rather than a focal front man.

Instead, Liverpool have five players that have each scored six or more goals. The 4-3-3 formation that Jürgen Klopp employs is conducive to goals being spread around the side; during attacks, the Liverpool midfield and attack regularly interchange with the license they have to roam around and confuse the opposition.

Surf and Turf

At Turf Moor in August, Liverpool certainly did just that but it was a case of poor finishing that let them down. From 26 attempts at goal, the Redmen only returned five shots on target whilst Burnley were clinical, Andre Gray and Sam Vokes scoring with their only shots on target.

Jordan Henderson’s absence was telling against Leicester last month but Liverpool didn’t appear to miss him last weekend. Roberto Firmino may not play too though which is not ideal. However, Klopp does have options in both positions.

Ding Dong Encounter

Liverpool’s Achilles heel this season has once against been their defence. In 23 home games in all competitions this season, they’ve kept just six clean sheets.

Burnley have started to score on their travels, and consistently. It’s now six consecutive away Premier League games that they’ve found the back of the net and I think following that avenue is our best option for a wager in this fixture.

Liverpool should win this one based on their performances at home and Burnley’s dire away record but the value is in backing Burnley to also register. The hosts to win and keep a clean sheet is just 20/21 (BetVictor) but to win and both teams to score is handsomely priced at 9/4 with Paddy Power.

I would normally look to correct scores but you can’t predict Liverpool easily with 4-1, 5-1 and 3-2 score-lines all definite possibilities.

Best Bets

Liverpool v Burnley – Liverpool to win and Both Teams To Score (9/4 PaddyPower)

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Will's an avid supporter of his local team, Swindon Town. He got into betting after a serious case of beginners luck landing a 14 fold BTTS accumulator. Whilst mostly transfixed to the English Leagues, he can't get enough of football and can regularly be found watching more obscure matches from around the globe. Will has a growing interest in American Football after watching the Atlanta Falcons in the States a few years ago. Outside of betting he loves nothing more than snowboarding, travelling the world and a weekend with his pals.

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