RUSS Butterfield (@cornerkicktips) has swerved corners this week and is delving into Football League team goals markets.
Rochdale v Oxford United | Saturday 15:00
Intriguing game this and one that stands out due to the fantastic run Rochdale have been on at home, winning their last 10 games.
Oxford are a mid-table away team and since their impressive win at Bolton in early October, have only beaten Bury and Gillingham in their subsequent seven games, neither of whom are particularly strong at home.
Despite this, they have managed an impressive average of 14 shots per game on the road this season and I’m assuming this has something to do with Rochdale being chalked up at decent price of 9/4 to win the game.
Rochdale’s winning run at home has been all the more impressive as they have been scoring plenty of goals too – an average of 2.5 over the 10 games with half of them seeing three or more home team goals. They have also proved to be resilient at the back, stopping the opposition scoring in seven of the 10 games.
Despite only winning 3/13 away games this season, Oxford haven’t found goals too hard to come by scoring in 10 of their 13 away games and in seven of the last eight.
These contrasting stats make any play on the BTTS market just too risky for me and likewise, while the Rochdale win and Over 2.5 goals may appeal, a clean sheet for the home team would mean Oxford would have to concede three goals for the first time away since October 2014 – an incredible run of 52 games.
While Oxford don’t make a habit of getting beaten heavily on the road, they have conceded two goals in 69% of their away games this season and with Rochdale scoring two or more in 69% of their home games, this is an angle that looks to have offer some value.
Oxford rarely lose games 1-0 on the road and Rochdale Over 1.5 team goals is a bet that has won in both league head to heads played at Spotland over the past five seasons.
Rochdale v Oxford – Over 1.5 Rochdale Goals (5/4 William Hill)