Correct Score: Data suggests a share of the spoils at White Hart Lane

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CORRECT SCORE specialist Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) delivers his best bet from Wednesday’s mouthwatering match from White Hart Lane.

Tottenham v Chelsea | Wednesday 20:00 | Sky Sports 1

There is no doubting that the correct score market is a volatile one.

A casing point is Tottenham’s most recent away record. They waited four-and-a-half years to record a 4-1 victory and then achieved this feat twice in the space of four days!

Therefore my advice to anyone looking to make a profit in this field is simple; understand what data you need to look at, accept there will be scorelines you simply cannot explain and recognise that you don’t need to win many bets to turn a profit.

A plan of attack

The gulf between the top-six and the rest of the league seems wider than at any point in the Premier League era.

Therefore, how can Tottenham’s comfortable recent victories against the likes of Swansea and Watford give you much insight in to what kind of score line to expect when they host table toppers Chelsea?

Simply put, it doesn’t. Instead, it is worth looking at their recent head-to-head records (accepting that the personnel has changed) and also how they have faired against other members of the top-six.

The data

In the last half dozen meetings between these two at White Hart Lane there have been four draws. Three of these matches have ended 1-1, with a further goalless draw.

In their five matches against fellow top-six opponents, Tottenham have recorded five points. As well as single-goal defeats to Chelsea and Manchester United (both away from home), they enjoyed a relatively comfortable victory at home to Manchester City and two 1-1 draws with Liverpool and Arsenal respectively.

Chelsea have won three and lost two against their peers and their record of just one draw all season is the only statistic that concerns me.

The bet

That said, with all else considered, I think the 6/1 William Hill are offering on a 1-1 draw is very favourable and I shall be taking them up on it.

Looking at recent records I feel it provides greater value than the simple outright market but would not deter the more conservative among you from simply backing that.

Best Bets

Tottenham v Chelsea – 1-1 correct score (6/1 William Hill)

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