Premier League: Outsiders Burnley deserve more respect

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CHRIS Graham (@chrisgraham79) dons his Santa suit and brings us his best Boxing Day bets.

Arsenal v West Brom | Monday 15:00

  • Arsenal hurting after suffering consecutive Premier League defeats.
  • Usually what happens with Arsenal is this negative energy pushes them into a fierce reaction and a stellar performance. When the doubters come out, Arsenal tend to respond.
  • Arsenal have won eight of their last 11 home league games and have lost just once at the Emirates in the last nine months.
  • Goals have been regular in these games. The Gunners have smashed three past Chelsea and Liverpool as well as Stoke, Bournemouth and Swansea.
  • West Brom have struggled against the elite sides this season and have lost against Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United. City inflicted a 4-0 hammering over them.
  • Arsenal have beaten West Brom in eight of their last nine meetings at the Emirates and enjoyed a 4-1 romp over them in 2015.
  • More of a gut feel than a stats bet, but I’ll back Over 2.5 Arsenal goals here. The wounded side have achieved that in four of their last six home league games.

Burnley v Middlesbrough | Monday 15:00

  • Despite finishing above them and having home advantage, Burnley come into their match against Middlesbrough as non-favourites. It seems inexplicable to me.
  • Burnley have been my favourite team to back this season and their home wins have rewarded punters at fancy prices. Despite this, the good odds continue.
  • Burnley are 41/20 to win this match which means they’re still odds against (28/25) in the Draw No Bet market. Remarkable.
  • Sean Dyche’s side have won five of their nine home matches in the league and have only met defeat against top sides Man City and Arsenal, plus an opening day of the season home loss against Swansea.
  • Middlesbrough are a mere point ahead of Burnley and have won just one away league game this season. That was four months ago against Sunderland.
  • It seems criminal not to take advantage of these Burnley home odds so I’ll back them DNB at odds against.

Manchester United v Sunderland | Monday 15:00

  • I took on Manchester United last weekend and got stung as they beat West Brom 2-0, but while they continue to be priced up at incredibly short odds I’ll continue to challenge them.
  • It’s a big game for David Moyes here as he returns to Old Trafford after his failed spell as Manchester United manager.
  • Sunderland are available to back +2 on the Asian Handicap at backable odds and it’s something I’ll get involved with. After all, do Manchester United hammer sides? I’m not so sure.
  • United have won eight games out of 17 this league season. Five of these have been by more than one goal and just one by more than two goals.
  • United have scored 17 fewer goals than Liverpool this season and have filed a modest 24 to their name. Crystal Palace have scored four more.
  • Sunderland have rarely been beaten up. They’ve lost 11 times this league season, five of those losses have been by more than one goal and three by more than two goals.
  • It’s debatable whether Jose Mourinho’s side can smash up Sunderland and with the Black Cats at 6/7 with a two goal start on the Asian Handicap I’ll back them.

Best Bets

Arsenal v West Brom – Over 2.5 Arsenal Goals (133/100 Marathon)

Burnley v Middlesbrough – Burnley draw no bet (28/25 Marathon)

Manchester United v Sunderland – Sunderland +2 Asian Handicap (6/7 Marathon)

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Chris first got interested in betting back in 2000 when he began working in betting shops throughout Scotland. He has remained in the industry ever since, specialising in marketing and PR roles. Outside of betting, his interests are listening to Blur and following Queen Of The South.

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