Football League: Chairboys to pile more misery on nosediving Robins

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FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) has been in great form of late. Here he highlights his favourite three Friday night selections.

Brighton v Cardiff | Friday 19:45

Brighton

  • Brighton have W39-D23-L7 since the start of last season and W24-D7-L4 at the AMEX across the same sample.
  • Brighton are unbeaten in 17 (W13-D4-L0) and have W15-D1-L1 when hosting bottom-half clubs.
  • Brighton have W16-D6-L2 at home in 2016, scoring 2+ in 15/24 home games – only failing to net in 3/24 home fixtures.
  • Brighton have seen 19/24 home games in 2016 feature Over 1.5 Goals.
  • Brighton have seen 8/9 league matches feature Over 1.5 Goals.
  • Brighton have seen 11 of their 15 league wins feature Over 1.5 Goals, including 8 of their 9 league wins at the AMEX.

Cardiff

  • Cardiff have W0-D2-L2 in their last 4 away games and have W0-D4-L4 away to clubs in 16th and above.
  • Cardiff have lost by 2+ goals in 5/9 trips to top-six teams.
  • Cardiff have only kept 2 clean sheets in the Championship this season and conceded 2+ goals in 7/11 away games.
  • Cardiff have scored in 7/8 league games, including 2+ in each of their last 3 matches.
  • Cardiff have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 8/10 away league games and Over 1.5 Goals in 10/11 away league games this season.

Back Brighton to win and Over 1.5 Goals at 11/10 (BetStars)

Rochdale v Shrewsbury | Friday 19:45

Rochdale

  • Rochdale have W12-D0-L4 since mid-September including W9-D0-L0 at home.
  • Rochdale’s W9-D0-L0 at home have arrived by an aggregate 23-3 goals.
  • Rochdale have had W-W double results at home in each of their last 7 and in 6/8 when welcoming bottom-six sides to Spotland.
  • Rochdale have scored 2+ goals in 8/12 at home and 3+ goals in 5/12 at home.
  • Rochdale have W32/58 (55%) of home games since arriving in League One – 45 (78%) of those featuring Over 1.5 Goals.
  • Rochdale have W21-D5-L4 when hosting bottom-half teams in League One – that’s a 70% win record – Dale scored 2+ goals in 21/30 (70%) games.
  • Rochdale have seen each of their last 7 League One games feature Over 2.5 Goals and seen 9/12 home games feature Over 1.5 Goals.
  • Rochdale’s 56.50% shot ratio return is only bettered by four clubs – it improves to 62.13% when playing at home.

Shrewsbury

  • Shrewsbury have W3-D2-L3 in League One games under Paul Hurst but W1-D1-L3 away from home.
  • Shrewsbury have W1-D2-L6 of their last 9 away games and had L-L double results in 5/7 away games.
  • Shrewsbury have lost 16/35 (46%) away games since promotion – 28 (80%) featured Over 1.5 Goals as they conceded 2+ in 20/35 (57%).
  • Shrewsbury have lost 6/9 away trips to top-six teams.
  • Shrewsbury have seen 10/12 away matches feature Over 1.5 Goals and 7/12 away games produce Over 2.5 Goals.
  • No League One side has faced more shots than Shrewsbury this season and only Walsall have conceded more on-target efforts.
  • Only Port Vale (36.86%) have returned a worse shot ratio figure than Shrewsbury (39.21%).

Back Rochdale to win and Over 1.5 Goals (21/20 BetStars)

Cheltenham v Wycombe | Friday 19:45

Cheltenham

  • Cheltenham manager Gary Johnson has said his squad isn’t good enough and is looking at bringing in up to five new players by next week.
  • Cheltenham have won 4/22 games since promotion and kept only 3/22 clean sheets.
  • Cheltenham have lost 5/6 games of late, including an FA Cup exit at non-league Sutton.
  • Cheltenham have W2-D5-L5 at home in League Two and conceded 2+ in 5/9 at home.
  • Cheltenham are conceding on average 1.55 goals per-game but have only scored 2+ in 7/22 since promotion.
  • Only 3 League Two sides have faced more shots on-target than Cheltenham.

Wycombe

  • Wycombe have W8-D1-L0 in their last 9 games having fought back from 3-1 down to draw 3-3 at Plymouth on Boxing Day.
  • Wycombe have only W3-D4-L5 away but 5 of those games came at the current top-five and Wycombe have W3-D1-L0 in their last 4 away, keeping 2 clean sheets.
  • Wycombe have kept clean sheets in 5/8 games now, conceding in games against Cambridge, Doncaster and Plymouth.
  • Wycombe have W10-D3-L4 in games against teams below in the table, including W3-D2-L2 away.
  • Wycombe haven’t conceded more than 1 goal in any away games at teams below in the League Two table.
  • Wycombe forward Scott Kashket has scored 9 league goals, including 7 in his last 5 matches.
  • League Two has seen 100/263 (38%) of away wins this season.

Back Wycombe 0 Asian Handicap at 8/11 (BetVictor).

Best Bets

Brighton v Cardiff – Brighton to win and Over 1.5 Goals (11/10 BetStars)

Rochdale v Shrewsbury – Rochdale to win and Over 1.5 Goals (21/20 BetStars)

Cheltenham v Wycombe – Wycombe 0 Asian Handicap (8/11 BetVictor)

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About Author

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After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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