Stats Chat | 5th November 2016

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AN occasional series headed up by Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79). This week Chris looks at three games stats suggest are Over 2.5 bankers.

This is a pretty crude bit of analysis but I’ve essentially gone through all English and Scottish clubs and looked at their Over 2.5 Goals ratios. Any side that had a ratio of 60% or higher for their games going Over 2.5 Goals were added to the list.

I then looked at all fixtures these sides are involved with this weekend to see if any of these teams were playing each other. Six sides with a 60%+ Over 2.5 Goals ratio were up against clubs also with that ratio meaning three fixtures met the criteria.

Bury v AFC Wimbledon | Saturday 15:00

Two unlikely third tier sides meet in the FA Cup on Saturday and they both have strong Over 2.5 Goals records this season.

11 of Bury’s 16 League One matches in 2016/17 saw Over 2.5 Goals while AFC Wimbledon boast a 62.5% (10 of their games went Over). Over 2.5 Goals has been priced up at 39/40 by Unibet.

Alloa v Stenhousemuir | Saturday 15:00

Scottish League One has been a goldmine for Over 2.5 punters this season with seven of the 10 sides showing a 50%+ ratio for the metric. My study focuses on 60%+ and six sides fall within that bracket.

Incredibly all but one of Stenhousemuir’s league games this season has seen three or more goals and on Saturday they visit Alloa who themselves have gone Over in nine of their 11 fixtures. It’s no surprise to see this game as short as 1/2 to oblige with Coral.

Peterhead v Brechin | Saturday 15:00

From the same division but with a much more favourable price we find Peterhead’s clash with Brechin on Saturday. The Glebe Park outfit have seen four of their last six games go Over and they sit second in the table.

Like Brechin, Peterhead have a 63% Over 2.5 Goals ratio and the sixth place team will be hoping to contribute on Saturday. Over 2.5 is 3/4 with Marathon Bet.

Best Bets

Bury v AFC Wimbledon – Over 2.5 Goals (39/40 Unibet)

Alloa v Stenhousemuir – Over 2.5 Goals (1/2 Coral)

Peterhead v Brechin – Over 2.5 Goals (3/4 Marathon Bet)

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About Author

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Chris first got interested in betting back in 2000 when he began working in betting shops throughout Scotland. He has remained in the industry ever since, specialising in marketing and PR roles. Outside of betting, his interests are listening to Blur and following Queen Of The South.

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