NFL: McCoy can be the real deal this Sunday

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CREEPING towards the play-offs and Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) has some bets lined up for this NFL Sunday,

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals | Sunday 18:00

First up this week is a matchup between the wonderful Marv Lewis head coach of the Bengals and the not quite so wonderful Rex Ryan the man in charge of a Buffalo team that cannot seem to find its place.

Despite shutting out New England in Week 4, the Bills have as usual been unable to put a consistent run of positive results together. I have backed a positive result for them this time and on the basis that the Buffalo secondary cannot stop anyone let alone AJ Green, I also have this game down as overs.

However, my NAP of the week, for the second time this season, concerns LeSean McCoy. Shady has not let us down this year and should be freshened up coming off of the Bye Week. Everything about this matchup is right. This is the number two rushing offence facing off against the 24th ‘best’ rushing defence.

Cincinnati gives up an average 116 yards per game on the ground. Buffalo pounds that thing 155 yards a week and with McCoy one of the very best backs in the NFL, even Ryan won’t go away from the ground game when it so obviously looks like the route to victory.

Buffalo are simply not good enough to be completely confident of getting a result, not in betting terms anyway but against a Bengals defence that made the New York Giants ground game look competent, Shady could easily go for 150 or more. McCoy has had injury issues throughout the season, but is fit and good to go. 100% the bet of the week. McCoy lands the odds and does it early.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions | Sunday 18:00

Another game which looks like an obvious win with a but. Detroit really should be beating Jacksonville but. Well the but really concerns backing them to cover the spread. What concerns me in these type of games is a quarterback like Blake Bortles.

Not as bad as some will think but Bortles is a pretty average quarterback but in the fourth quarter, garbage time, he resembles a future hall of famer. Many a bet of mine has gone down as Bortles produces three TDs in the last few minutes and covers the spread in games they never competed in.

Bortles has many qualities no doubt. Ball security is not one of them and one firm has given us a chance to make what looks like a reasonably safe bet at very attractive odds. Jacksonville not only turns the ball over with alarming regularity but has also gone almost six games without a takeaway of its own. They are closing in on an unwanted 25 year old record with that one.

They are up against a Detroit offensive unit that has given the ball away just six times in the 2016 season. That ranks 2nd in the NFL. On the basis of Matt Stafford having protected the ball like it was one of his children, ever since the arrival of OC Jim Bob Cooter quotes of 11/10 on Jacksonville turning the ball over most seems very generous. Hard to see this one not landing.

Best Bets

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals - LeSean McCoy Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (10/11 BetVictor)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions – Jacksonville Most Turnovers (11/10 William Hill)

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I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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