NFL Tips | Jacksonville @ Tennessee | 28th October 2016

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THURSDAY Night Football and Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) is at the controls for Jacksonville @ Tennessee.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans | Friday 01:25 | Sky Sports 1

Thursday Night Football really is only for the NFL obsessives amongst us. The games are generally the ones nobody really wants to broadcast on Sunday or Monday.

I know, I’m building this up well but stay with me. Bad teams don’t always equal bad games. The standard may not be high but with obvious exception of Seahawks @ Cardinals, the NFL rarely throws up a bore fest.

A lot of you may have initially thought much the same as me about this game. It’s a Titans win right? After all, they are at home and in Marcos Mariota, DeMarco Murray and Delainie Walker have most of the potential match winners.

Oh that and the Jaguars are absolutely dreadful. Yeah that. Well, the more you go into this as a matchup, rather than just games against other teams, it’s not so clear cut.

The Jags have the 6th best passing defence in the NFL up against a team that ranks 27th in throwing the ball.

Jacksonville boasts a contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year in Jalen Ramsey. The Florida State cornerback has shut down the likes of Alshon Jeffrey and Amari Cooper this year and this kid alone will severely limit what Mariota can do with the ball.

Tennesee should have little option but to use DeMarco Murray as much as they can. There are a lot of attractive lines concerning Murray. We finally have the 2014 Cowboys version of Murray back, not that thing that Chip Kelly produced every week in Philly.

Some decent shouts on Twitter today and Anytime TD at 10/11 is certainly one of them. His rushing line of 90 and combined total of 115 are both eye catching.

Number 29 catches the ball a lot more than you think; 192 yards so far this season, including a zero at Cleveland which is a game I choose to ignore as it’s his only blip of the season.

The line I like the most and my only bet this evening is number of rush attempts and I take Murray to go over 21.5 with Bet365. I’m looking at it as my bet of the week.

In the last four weeks, DeMarco has carried the thing 25 times in Houston, 27 in Miami, 21 in a relative disaster against the Browns and 25 again in the loss at home to the Colts.

I think this is a close low scoring game full of old fashioned smashmouth football. Mariota would be foolish to air it out to often and that can only be good for Murray in a game where they should have plenty of possession.

Best Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennesee Titans – DeMarco Murray Over 21.5 Rushing Attempts (10/13 Bet365)

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I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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