NFL bible Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) returns with his take on Monday night’s action.
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals | Tuesday 01.30 | Sky Sports 1
Bittersweet last week as Greg Olsen smashed his yardage line, but was denied a touchdown by a woeful Derek Anderson throw.
With the handicap line being quite large for this one (understandably giving the trajectories of both teams), I’m going to once again look at the player markets.
It might seem like going against conventional wisdom after his performance against the 49ers last week, but I’m going to be backing Arizona RB David Johnson to go Under 87.5 Rushing Yards.
This isn’t to say Johnson won’t have a good game, but there are a number of factors as to why I’m leaning this way.
Firstly, it’s the Jets rush defence. Since they blew out the Bills in week 2, their defence of the run has been the only consistent part of their play and have only allowed 68.4 yards per-game (second in the league).
Conversely, their pass defence has been terrible so far and they’re giving up 303 yards per-game through the air (31st in the league).
You can expect Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians to target this weakness and whilst he’s going to want to establish a running game, he won’t force it if they are gaining big yardage from the passing game.
And speaking of the Cardinals passing game, Carson Palmer will be back at QB for Arizona this week and you can expect to see Johnson’s carries eaten into because of this.
With backup QB Drew Stanton in last week, Johnson had a season high 27 carries, but when Palmer was under centre for the first four games of the season, Johnson averaged 11 carries less than this.
Johnson will get his touches of course, but if the Jets can maintain their impressive defence against the run then he may see more of the yards come in the passing game rather than on the ground.
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals – David Johnson to have Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (5/6 Paddy Power)