TOM LOVEYS (@ValueBetMethods) analyses the odds ahead of Tuesday night’s Bundesliga card.
It’s affectionately known as English Wöche this week in the Bundesliga with a full programme in the German top-flight.
We’re here to take away that cloudiness in your beer and steer you in the right path for betting success this week.
Ingolstadt v Eintracht Frankfurt | Tuesday 19.00
Ingolstadt will be keen to avoid ‘second season syndrome’ this year and will want to build on a pretty solid 2015/16 finishing 11th.
Coach Markus Kauczinski has inherited a side who have been labelled ‘hard to beat’ and he needs to maintain that in order to have a successful spell.
Die Schanzer have started the season with a draw and two losses, albeit the losses were against Bayern and Hertha, both having 100% records as we speak. They also earnt the distinction of being the first (and only) side to score against the dominant champions this season
Eintracht have started off the season remarkably well, with two wins and a defeat, the most recent, a great 2-1 win at home to Leverkusen.
However, those two wins sandwiched a defeat to relegation favourites Darmstadt, showing some of the frailties of last season where it took a two-legged play-off victory against Nurnberg to keep their Bundesliga status.
The AudiSport Park is small with a capacity of just 15,000, which makes for a difficult midweek trip. Frankfurt visited last year and went home with a 2-0 defeat, whilst their home leg ended in a 1-1 draw.
Buoyed by a positive showing against Bayern, I think Ingolstadt may be a touch of value at 13/10 (William Hill) to get the result on Tuesday.
Frankfurt may have had some resurgence and positivity but a side that’s only mustered nine away wins in three seasons, alongside 30 losses is not a team, I’d be wanting to back.
Conversely Ingolstadt have won seven of their last 20 at home and whilst I can’t see an abundance of goals, Die Schanzer may nick it to give us the win.
Darmstadt v Hoffenheim | Tuesday 19.00
Darmstadt are still the bookies favourites for the drop, priced at 8/11 but can change those odds with a win against Hoffenheim on Tuesday.
The side from Hesse, who achieved back-to-back promotions in 2013/14 and 2014/15 surprised everyone by maintaining their Bundesliga status last year.
This year though, Die Lilien are expected to not be so resilient; they have a new coach in Norbert Meier but have already lost two away from home; 2-0 to Koln and a thrashing against Dortmund 6-0.
With that defeat fresh in the mind, Meier will be keen for his troops to pick up the pieces.
Hoffenheim can usually be relied on for entertainment and goals, albeit the 0-0 against Wolfsburg was against the norm. They’ve had three draws, 2-2, 4-4 and 0-0 in their opening three matches and showed great character coming back from 4-1 down against Mainz to salvage a draw.
However, away from home, Achtzehn99 have struggled in the past. They’ve only won three of the last 20 away games and last season’s clash saw a 0-0 between the two sides, whilst Darmstadt took away a 2-0 victory in the reverse leg.
Whilst the Hoff like to attack, they also leave gaps at the back and Darmstadt will be hoping Sven Schipplock or Roman Bezjak can be the men to ‘unlock’ this defence.
At a price of 9/11, Darmstadt can be backed +0.50 Asian Handicap, which means our bet will land should Die Lilien avoid defeat on Tuesday.
They’ll know that these home games are a must to pick up points should they want to keep their Bundesliga status and will want to wipe the memory of the defeat to Dortmund from their minds.
Ingolstadt v Eintracht Frankfurt – Ingolstadt to win (13/10 William Hill)
Darmstadt v Hoffenheim – Darmstadt +0.50 Asian Handicap (9/11 BetVictor)