AFTER a few days off with the family Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) returns with a bookings bet for Tuesday.
Wigan v Wolves | Tuesday 19:45
A full card of Championship, League One and League Two this midweek and my eye was drawn to the game at the DW Stadium between Wigan Athletic and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Rock bottom Latics have garnered just five points from their opening nine games. Walter Zenga’s Wolves currently sit just outside the play off positions in eighth place.
This season Wigan average 2.89 cards per game and Wolves 2.11. That suggests that 5.0 might be expected in this fixture. Tony Harrington is in charge tonight and he has given cards this season of 4-6-7-3-5-7-2. That is an average of 4.86 per match.
The most recent match where he issued just two yellows was a drab 0-0 between Ipswich and Aston Villa. More often than not goalless stalemates kill cards so I’m prepared to ignore that card count. In career games officiating the hosts he typically gives them two cards per game and also two to the visitors from the Black Country.
These two sides last met in 2014/15 and in those two league matches a total of 15 cards were issued. Nine came in the battle at the DW Stadium in April 2015 in a game Wolves won 1-0. There were six cards in the earlier meeting at Molinuex.
I think we will see at least four cards in this one. This referee has some quite high card make ups and so I’m backing over 45pts at a juicy 29/20 with William Hill.
Wigan v Wolves – Over 45 Bookings Points (29/20 William Hill)