UFC boff David Walker (@WalkerDavid32) highlights the best betting opportunities for Sunday’s dust-up between Anthony Johnson and Glover Teixeira.
Anthony Johnson v Glover Teixeira | Sunday 03.30 | BT Sport 1
Expect fireworks in this one as two of the biggest hitters in the light heavyweight division go head-to-head in what is surely a number one contender match-up, with the winner likely to face-off against current champ Daniel Cormier later in the year – possibly at the first ever UFC event in New York.
Anthony Johnson enters this fight as the bookies favourite priced at 8/15 with Paddy Power to come out victorious. Whilst there isn’t a great deal of money to be made from that price, it is pretty fair when you look closely at it.
Since moving up to light heavyweight, Rumble has won nine of his 10 fights (as well as a heavyweight victory over Andrei Arlovski).
These victories have come in a number of different organisations but he has beaten some elite level fighters, particularly in the UFC.
His solitary defeat came at the hands of the current champion Daniel Cormier and this was after it appeared as though Johnson had DC beaten in the first round. Of his nine victories, Rumble has finished seven of his opponents in Under 1.5 Rounds.
In Glover, Rumble is facing a durable, savvy veteran with finishing power of his own. Having won eight times since joining the UFC in 2012, the Brazilian has finished seven of his opponents inside the 15 minutes and five of those stoppages have come in Under 1.5 Rounds.
With both fighters enjoying a quick stoppage, I fully expect this one to be over quickly and Betfred are offering a very reasonable 10/11 for the fight to be finished in Under 1.5 Rounds.
This means that should the fight time be less than 7:30, the selection will win. With Johnson holding an average fight time of 6:23 and Glover an average of 7:40, the numbers seem to suggest that Under 1.5 Rounds won’t be far off.
Looking further afield for a better price in this fight, I am drawn to picking Rumble to win in the 2nd Round at 11/2 with Paddy Power.
With a significant strikes landed per-minute of 3.27, Johnson’s heavy hitting will begin to wear Teixeira down over the course of the first five minutes, particularly as the underdog absorbs 3.59 significant strikes per-minute with a defensive accuracy of 57%.
It should be noted that the Brazilian is very durable and has never been stopped during his 10-fight UFC tenure. Indeed, he has only been finished once in his 29 fight career and that was on his debut way back in 2002.
Unfortunately for Glover, he has never been hit by anyone as heavy handed as Anthony Johnson and, whilst I feel his chin is good enough to take some initial punishment from Rumble, come the early part of the second round, I believe Glover will be on his back and Johnson a step closer to avenging his loss against DC.
Anthony Johnson v Glover Teixeira – Under 1.5 Rounds (10/11 Betfred)
Anthony Johnson v Glover Teixeira – Anthony Johnson to win in the 2nd Round (11/2 Paddy Power)