TENNIS expert Mark Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) shares his best bets for Day 5 of Wimbledon.
Nick Kyrgios v Dustin Brown | Friday 11:00 | BBC
After beating 14-time Grand Slam and two-time Wimbledon champion Rafael Nadal in flamboyant fashion last year, Dustin Brown was given a wildcard back into SW19, and after beating Dusan Lajovic in five sets in round one, set up what should be fun match against fellow showman Nick Kyrgios.
Both men like to play unconventional shots, and coupled with Brown’s unpredictable serve and volley game and the fact they’ve never faced each other before, may cause problems for Kyrgios.
Given Kyrgios has now dropped a set in eight of his 10 matches here, I like Brown to take at least a set. They’re mostly challengers but Dustin has won nine of his 11 matches on grass this year and 20 of 26 since 2015.
He’s played nine main draw matches here and taken a set in seven of them. At 11/8 it looks a good price with it being odds on in places. Brown hit 53 winners in round one, losing his serve just twice.
Those after a bigger risk may fancy Dreddy to take the first set if he comes out firing and Kyrgios struggles to adjust. The Australian has lost the first set on four occasions of his 10 matches here and 4/1 looks tempting when it’s as short as 9/4 in places.
Lucas Pouille v Donald Young | Friday 11:00 | BBC
2016 has been 22 year-old Lucas Pouille breakthrough year, recording victories against David Ferrer (x2), David Goffin (x2), Richard Gasquet and Ernests Gulbis.
Donald Young is just 17-14 for the year and that record is even less appealing given nearly 40% of those are challenger matches or qualifiers, suffering second stage or earlier exits in 12 tournaments.
I kind of feel Young is a bit of a journeyman nowadays, and this is the first time in nine attempts he’s made the second round here, going out in the first five times which is no surprise given his grass court record of 15-24 (38%).
Pouille’s record on grass is only 4-11 in comparison (27%), but he’s on an upward curve at the moment as opposed to Young, and took a set off Nishikori on the fast courts of Halle as well as a set off big serving Kevin Anderson here last year.
Pouille is ranked number 30 in the world and Young 69, and given before this week the American had never won a match here, it seems strange he is favourite when Pouille is clearly the better player, with seemingly not much in it on grass.
Nick Krygios v Dustin Brown – Dustin Brown to win a set (11/8 William Hill)
Nick Krygios v Dustin Brown – Dustin Brown to win the first set (4/1 William Hill)
Lucas Pouille v Donald Young – Lucas Pouille to win (Evens Bet365)
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