WILL DYER (@W2Dyer) nailed a 14/1 winner in his last Euro 2016 preview. Can he repeat the feat in the last-16 showdown between Germany and Slovakia on Sunday?
Germany v Slovakia | Sunday 17.00 | ITV1
England should have beaten Slovakia – they won the shot-count 29-4. The Slovaks knew that a draw would see them through but this is now knockout football so their approach will have to change unless they fancy playing the Germans at their national sport, penalties.
Die Mannschaft had a similar final group game against Northern Ireland, taking 26 shots to the minnows two. They were fluent and their passing was exceptional.
Plenty were expecting Germany to romp home in that fixture, but, whilst they may have disappointed slightly with the 1-0 win, at least they found a way through the Green and White Army’s backline.
You can usually count on the Germans to succeed where England could not and I think it’ll be more of the same in this match. Slovakia will have to try and get forward in this game and I fancy them to be picked off by the fine passing abilities of the likes of Toni Kroos and Mesut Ozil.
Martin Skrtel put in a fine display against England but ultimately I feel the Falcons clean sheet was largely down to a lack of creativity from the Three Lions midfield and poor finishing from the front men. A problem Germany do not share.
Plenty are pointing to a lack of pace in this German squad and I’m inclined to agree but I don’t see that being a big deal in a match like this in which Germany should be comfortable in possession.
Slovakia have a pretty strong midfield; Robert Mak, Vladimir Weiss and Marek Hamsik are all worthy of their place in this tournament. They will be confident they can cause an upset after beating Germany 3-1 in a pre-tournament friendly last month but the Germans fielded a rather dysfunctional team that day.
Antonio Rudiger, Sebastian Rudy, Julian Draxler and Leroy Sane all started in that friendly, taking the places of Mats Hummels, Thomas Muller, Benedikt Howedes and Toni Kroos; players that are incomparable in my opinion.
If you’d have asked me how this game would pan out before watching Slovakia play England, I might have been tempted to tip Slovakia on the handicap but after watching them retreat into their shells in Saint-Etienne on Monday, there’s only one bet for me.
Germany are yet to concede a goal. I’ll be honest I’m not overly keen on Jonas Hector or Jerome Boateng but the latter has certainly had a good tournament so far and I doubt they’ll be tested all too much by a team fronted by a striker plying his trade in the Ekstraklasa (Ondrej Duda).
I’m not anticipating a huge win here. Mario Gomez will be well martialled by Skrtel and Jan Durica but I’d be very surprised if they managed to keep another clean sheet in a game that’s sure to see dozens of attempts at their goal again so the win ‘to nil’ appeals at a shade of odds-on (39/40).
This could be 3 or 4-0 but I’m not prepared to back Germany in any goal markets, the odds of 4/9 on them winning have sapped most of the value there, and whilst you could Dutch 1-0 or 2-0, you never know whether the same free-flowing side that put seven past Brazil two years ago might turn up.
Germany v Slovakia – Germany to win ‘to nil’ (39/40 Netbet)