AHEAD of a big weekend, Will Dyer (@w2Dyer) has come up with some great information on how to make last day of the season profit.
WLB Analysis | Final Day Of The Season
This weekend sees the last gameweek of the Premier League, Ligue 1, La Liga and Bundesliga. We’ll all be sorry for the season to end in those leagues but at least they tend to go out with a bang, well, that’s the common belief anyway.
Final day goals bets are usually on the agenda for football punters but I wanted to check that the stats back up the theory before lumping on Over 2.5 and Both Teams To Score bets this weekend. I’ve analysed goals trends over the last 10 seasons in the hope to point us in the right direction for the final weekend.
There’s quite a strong correlation between some of Europe’s top divisions when it comes to goals trends. The last 10 seasons of the Premier League and La Liga have both seen a total of 307 goals scored on the final day; so an average of 30.7 a year and 3.07 GPG.
Compare this to the typical average goals per game (GPG) of those divisions and it’s obvious that the theory of an increase in average goals per game rings true.
(GPG) over the course of the season from 2004/5 through to 2013/14:
- Premier League – 2.66 GPG
- Spanish La Liga – 2.69 GPG
- French Ligue 1 – 2.33 GPG
- German Bundesliga – 2.89 GPG
Average goals per game (GPG) in the final gameweeks from 2004/5 through to 2013/14:
- Premier League – 3.07 GPG
- Spanish La Liga – 3.07 GPG
- French Ligue 1 – 3.0 GPG
- German Bundesliga – 3.16 GPG
The figures above illustrate the theory very well. We’re seeing an increase of around 0.4 goals per game on the final day in La Liga and the Premier League, in other words four more goals than usual split over the 10 games.
In Ligue 1 the gap is much greater, a substantial increase of 0.67 GPG on average; so six or seven more goals on the final day and, despite already having a huge GPG, the Bundesliga soars well over three goals per game on the final day, an increase of 0.27 GPG from the norm.
Drop In Goals This Season
The Premier League, Bundesliga and La Liga have seen a significant reduction in goals this season, something I will be investigating in the next WLB Analysis but, if you look at the 04/05, 05/06 and 06/07 seasons in which there were a similarly low number of goals over the course of the season you notice that there were still a lot of goals on the final day.
In the combined six seasons of La Liga and the Premier League from 2004/05 through to 2006/07 five of those six low scoring seasons still saw a GPG average of 2.90 or more on the final day.
The Bundesliga also averaged a GPG lower than usual in those three seasons; just 2.82, but maintained high scoring games in the final gameweek; averaging exactly 3.00 GPG on the final gameweeks across the 2004/05, 2005/06 and 2006/7 seasons.
In France the top flight averaged just 2.18 GPG through those three seasons but the final gameweeks averaged a whopping 3.13 GPG. So it seems that although we’ve had low scoring seasons across the continent in 2014/15 we should not be afraid to back goals on the final day, at least that’s what history dictates.
Final Day Bets
The most common bets on the final day are likely to be Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 multiples. With that in mind I thought I’d take a look at the stats in those markets over the last decade to see where the value lies.
We already know that the GPG increases by between 0.27 and 0.67 on the last day of the season but what does that mean for Over 2.5 and BTTS figures?
Premier League from 2004/5 through to 2013/14:
- Regular Gameweeks Over 2.5 – 49.8%
- Final Gameweeks Over 2.5 – 57.0%
- Regular Gameweeks BTTS – 48.8%
- Final Gameweeks BTTS – 56.0%
Spanish La Liga from 2004/5 through to 2013/14:
- Regular Gameweeks Over 2.5 – 50.4%
- Final Gameweeks Over 2.5 – 51.0%
- Regular Gameweeks BTTS – 49.9%
- Final Gameweeks BTTS – 55.0%
German Bundesliga from 2004/5 through to 2013/14:
- Regular Gameweeks Over 2.5 – 55.5%
- Final Gameweeks Over 2.5 – 77.8%
- Regular Gameweeks BTTS – 55.5%
- Final Gameweeks BTTS – 72.2%
French Ligue 1 from 2004/5 through to 2013/14:
- Regular Gameweeks Over 2.5 – 43.9%
- Final Gameweeks Over 2.5 – 57.0%
- Regular Gameweeks BTTS – 43.5%
- Final Gameweeks BTTS – 58.0%
All four divisions show an increase in Over 2.5 and BTTS percentages on the final day though there’s quite a range in these increases.
La Liga looks the most dangerous league to bet on for final day goals as there’s only a very slight increase between Over 2.5 games from regular gameweeks to the final day in Spain and whilst Both Teams To Score shows a bit of a healthier increase it’s still nothing special.
The Premier League shows a sizeable increase too but it’s still below 10% and bookmakers are likely to alter their odds for goals markets in the final gameweek so that may take most of the value out of this strategy.
The BTTS percentage is quite a lot higher than the Over 2.5 on the final day in La Liga and that’s because there have been a lot of 1-1 score-lines on the final day since 2004/5 in Spain. In fact the Over 2.5 strike rate in La Liga’s final gameweeks is 7% lower than any of the other three divisions over the last decade. With that in mind it may be worth backing that correct score or simply sticking with BTTS rather than Over 2.5.
The Bundesliga is the most consistent league in terms of high goal tallies on the final day and that is reflected in it’s very high BTTS and Over 2.5 percentages.
There are nine games on the final day in the Bundesliga and in nine of the last 10 seasons seven or more of those nine games have seen Over 2.5 goals. That’s lead to an incredible strike rate of 77.8% for Over 2.5 games on the final day in the Bundesliga over the last decade. Whilst BTTS is still successful it’s not as high at 72.2%.
Ligue 1 shows the most dramatic increase in GPG on the final day but it also experiences higher BTTS and Over 2.5 percentages than both La Liga and the Premier League which came as a surprise to me.
As well as this, out of all four divisions France holds the highest tally of goals on one specific final day; 43 goals in the 2007/8 season. Taking this on board and considering that France is the only division of the four that hasn’t seen a dramatic decrease in goals this year, in line with previous years, I think it holds the most potential for success on goals based bets on the final day of this particular season.
Suggest Final Day Strategies
Bundesliga – Back Over 2.5 Goals
Ligue 1 – Back both Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals
La Liga – Back 1-1 Correct Scores in suitable games in La Liga
Premier League – Back Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals in games with higher odds