GRAEME Johnston (@GraemeJ_83) has studied the Saturday cards for us and brings us his thoughts on the Irish 2000 Guineas.
17:40 The Curragh | At The Races
Ireland’s first Classic of the season and it sees the Newmarket winner take on the Newmarket favourite and a host of Irish challengers in a intriguing renewal. On paper Galileo Gold was a good winner of the Newmarket Classic but I’m not sure if he is unopposable here.
Galileo Gold won well three weeks ago and is a short priced favourite to complete the double here. He won well on the eye and granted if he was a Ballydoyle inmate he would be odds on to win here so why is 7/4 a bad price? Look at the placed horses!
Ok the second was a decent horse but the remaining nine places were a wrong and I suspect this was a poor Guineas. The favourite has either not trained on or has more to show and I think the value lies beyond the favourite here.
So is Air Force Blue the value? I thought he was a cut above the rest of his age group but his sire War Front has an incredible record with juveniles bit doesn’t quite cut it as a Classic winning stallion. Last year he looked incredible but how can you back a horse after his Newmarket run with no legitimate excuse? At 11/4 he’s not for me.
To me the value her is Awtaad. After winning a Leopardstown maiden last season he returned as an emphatic handicap winner at the Curragh in March. Anyone who seen that realised he was well above handicap level there and he returned to win a Listed race in equally impressive fashion.
Despite the step up in class here he looks a top class horse and everything points towards a huge run here. I fully expect him to go close and in a race that I think is winnable I plan to back him to win and I am pretty confident today.
17:40 The Curragh – Awtaad to win (6/1 Bet365)
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