TENNIS trader Mark Stinchcombe (@MarkStinchcombe) highlights the Roland Garros value from Thursday’s action in Paris.
Bernard Tomic v Borna Coric | Thursday 12.00
Bernard Tomic hates clay – let’s get that in straightaway.
His record is awful (18 wins to 42 losses) with just two wins in eight at Roland Garros; he openly admits “I suck on clay“. But sometimes a price is too big and let me explain why…
Tomic is ranked 22 in the world and Borna Coric 47, which tells you a little bit ability wise, that the Australian is ranked 25 places higher.
Coric, 19, hasn’t really kicked-on since he beat Rafa Nadal at the backend of 2014 and Andy Murray in early 2015. This year he’s lost in the 1st Round in six tournaments, with defeats at odds of 4/11, 4/11, 2/5 and 2/7 and is just 6-5 on clay.
These two have played once before at Indian Wells last year with Tomic coming through comfortably 6-3 6-4. Obviously that’s on a hard court but I don’t necessarily see a big difference in the way the match should play out.
Coric is going to grind a lot of points but Tomic hit 14 aces and 40 winners in a clean display in his straight sets win over Brian Baker and seemed positive afterwards despite his attitude often being criticised.
Tomic said, “Third Round is my target, it’s a goal, and if I can reach that and if I play one more good match, then I have nothing to lose and I can come out on matches ahead. This is going to be a very tough match for me. I’ll try everything to win this match.”
He’s been hitting with Novak Djokovic and Murray and again has appeared to give him a positive outlook, saying “I was practicing with a lot of quality hitters. Novak a few days ago. Good to see and get good rhythm. Playing bloody well, so I think the week I had training prior to this has given me the best chance to feel good having a chance to win some matches.”
I would price Tomic around 5/2 so the 4/1 (Boylesports) available on him seems ridiculous.
Stephane Robert v Alexander Zverev | Thursday 12.00
My bet to win quarter two, Alexander Zverev, concerned me that he was playing Nice the week before here and those concerns were furthered when he was bagelled by Dominic Thiem in the final set.
After beating Joao Sousa in the semi-final on Friday, Zverev said, “I am very tired, but very proud to be in the final.”
In his 1st Round match as a 3/10 favourite he dropped the 1st set 7-5 against Pierre-Hughes Herbert but it was good to see him come through in four.
Frenchman Stephane Robert upset the odds at 15/8 defeating Kevin Anderson 6-4, 6-2, 1-6, 7-5 in the 1st Round. His record is poor here but he has previously taken 1st sets off Tomas Berdych and Kyle Edmund.
This year Robert’s 10-5 on the clay and pushed Djokovic close in a 7-5, 7-5 defeat in Rome.
Zverev has dropped the 1st set as a short-priced fave in nine of his last 15 matches and given he might be tired coming into this, plus the home support for the Frenchman, 11/5 (Bwin) looks worth chancing on Robert taking the opener.
David Goffin v Carlos Berlocq | Thursday 13.30
Number 13 in the world David Goffin does incredibly well for himself despite his limited weapons. His ability to grind opponents down should be commended but it often comes at the cost of conceding a set and I often look to oppose him in the set markets.
Goffin’s lost the first set in eight of his last 15 clay court matches and here at the French his record isn’t great with just one 4th Round appearance, dropping the opener when 1/8 to Filip Krajinovic last year and previously to Arnaud Clement when 1/33.
Carlos Berlocq is having a decent year on clay going 14-4 and comprehensively beat Paulo Lorenzi 6-3, 6-0, 6-2 in the 1st Round. He’ll come out hitting and last year in Round 2 he took the opener 6-3 against Richard Gasquet.
10/3 (William Hill) on Berlocq to take the first set looks a nice price with it being as short as 9/4 elsewhere.
Victor Estrella v Feliciano Lopez | Thursday 15.00
Feliciano Lopez’s serve volley game doesn’t suit the clay courts, he’s just 6-6 this year and has an awful record here going out at Round 2 or earlier 13 times out of 15, at odds including 4/11, 4/7, 2/7 and 3/10.
Victor Estrella doesn’t have much of a record here but these two have met twice before with Estrella winning both, including in the final of Quito on the clay last year.
Estrella is in decent form on clay this year going 12-7 including winning Quito again this year and has wins over Thiem, Marin Cilic and Tomaz Belucci in the last year.
He was 15/8 to win when they met last year and the 9/4 (Ladbrokes) available looks good in a match Estrella knows he can win.
David Ferrer v Juan Monaco | Thursday 15.00
David Ferrer has underperformed this year and I’m wondering if his 34-year-old body is beginning to catch up with him.
He’s lost at odds of 2/9, 1/7, 4/11, 4/7, 4/11, 1/2 and 1/16 and I speculate whether he can grind at such an intensity anymore, especially over five sets.
Juan Monaco has had a good year on the dirt going 10-3, including a title in Houston. He’s beaten Stanislaw Wawrinka, Jack Sock, Feliciano Lopez and Benoit Paire and actually pushed his mate Nadal to two close sets.
These two have met eight times before with the head-to-head standing at 4-4 with their meetings on clay 3-3, so there isn’t much to separate them, although there’s been only one meeting in the last five years.
Monaco is clearly capable of winning and given Ferrer’s troubles this year, 3/1 looks too big.
Bernard Tomic v Borna Coric – Bernard Tomic to win (4/1 Boylesports)
Stephane Robert v Alexander Zverev – Stephane Robert to win the first set (11/5 Bwin)
David Goffin v Carlos Berlocq – Carlos Berlocq to win the first set (10/3 William Hill)
Victor Estrella v Feliciano Lopez – Victor Estrella to win (9/4 Ladbrokes)
David Ferrer v Juan Monaco – Juan Monaco to win (3/1 William Hill)