TOM LOVEYS (@ValueBetMethods) is back with a host of Bundesliga betting action across the weekend, again stepping in to the sizeable German shoes of maestro Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) whilst he is away.
Bundesliga | Saturday 14.30
All of the top flight action kicks off at 2:30pm Saturday with Bayern Munich just needing to avoid defeat at Ingolstadt to secure their fourth successive Bundesliga title.
So how can we deliver the funds for all those steins of beer this week? The team I follow, Hertha Berlin, have got the right idea and are selling their beer for free this weekend in their home clash against Darmstadt, which incidentally is the game for my first selection this week.
Hertha Berlin v Darmstadt | Saturday 14.30
Admidst the free beer, both sides have something to play for.
Darmstadt are perilously close to the drop zone after losing last week whilst Hertha’s European assault has come off the rails somewhat with no win in five.
Looking at the stats and odds available the Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score ‘No’ options look appealing, with the latter maybe a better choice as I’m expecting/hoping for a Hertha victory.
Combined together 22/36 respective home and away games have seen either both of one side fail to score and the previous encounter this season saw Hertha romp to a 4-0 away victory.
Maybe a smaller victory this time, but at 17/16 (Marathon), the BTTS NO option will be our selection.
Koln v Werder Bremen | Saturday 14.30
Bremen hit the ground running on the Bundesliga’s first Monday night match this week with a crazy 6-2 victory over fellow strugglers Stuttgart.
This victory will have course inspired confidence and whilst they’ve hauled themselves out of the relegation zone at the right time, we are looking at a side who have lost half of their matches this season, nine of these away from home and 11 out of the last 20 on their travels.
Koln are a tough side, who have gone from securing their Bundesliga place last week to have a very slight chance of getting European qualification this week!
The Billy Goats will want to put on show for their home fans and at 2/1 (Betway) to take the three points, I think this may represent some value.
Ingolstadt v Bayern Munich | Saturday 14.30
Going against the norm is something that is tough to do, but in the long run may be the value choice.
As stated, Bayern just need to avoid defeat to lift the title and the obvious choice would be to go looking for action expecting goals and a Bayern comfortable victory.
However Ingolstadt are no mugs having secured their Bundesliga status in their first season and having one of the strongest defences in the league.
Can they keep it tight and restrict the chances? Well, at the Allianz in Match Day 16, Bayern ran out 2-0 winners, but it did take 65 minutes to break down a stubborn defence.
Under 2.5 goals, priced at 11/8 (Marathon) could be something to take a chance on.
Unders has obliged in 21/36 respective home/away matches and with a tough Champions League encounter behind them, Bayern could be slow out of the traps.