Cheltenham Tips | Day 1 Trends | 15th March 2016 | C4

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CHAMPION DAY kick-off the 2016 Cheltenham Festival but could following the trends guide us towards a few Day 1 winners? Below we pick out the standout stats for Tuesday’s action.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends | Tuesday 13.30 | Channel 4

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle kicks-off the 2016 Cheltenham Festival with punters hoping to get their week off to a good start. Willie Mullins’s Douvan was a sparkling winner of the 2015 renewal.

  • 3/3 (100%) – The last three winners were trained by Willie Mullins.
  • 14/15 (93%) – Winners had raced at least once in the previous 45 days before the Festival.
  • 17/19 (89%) – Winners had won on their last appearance before the Festival.
  • 17/20 (85%) – Winners and place positions were filled by ex-bumper horses.
  • 16/19 (84%) – Winners were ridden prominently.
  • 14/18 (78%) – Winners were priced at odds higher than 3/1.
  • 9/12 (75%) – Horses that started at 2/1 or shorter were beaten.
  • 11/16 (59%) – Winners have been Irish-trained horses.
  • 9/24 (37%) – Winners have ran no more than twice over hurdles previously.

Arkle Trophy Trends | Tuesday 14.10 | Channel 4

The Arkle Trophy is the champion two-mile chase for novices run at the Cheltenham Festival. This is a race for the speedsters, with many former top hurdlers taking this route, with the top rated hurdlers having a good record.

  • 32/24 (94%) – Winners chose not to make most of the running.
  • 27/29 (93%) – Winners won or were second in their previous race.
  • 23/25 (92%) – Winners were priced up at 11/1 or shorter.
  • 9/10 (90%) – Winners were aged between five and seven.
  • 14/16 (88%) – Winners were rated at least 142 over hurdles.
  • 15/18 (83%) – Winners had never previously fallen or unseated their ride over fences.
  • 9/12 (75%) – Winners had either won at the Festival or at Cheltenham previously.
  • 6/9 (67%) – Winners had won a pattern race over hurdles.
  • 15/23 (65%) – Winners were second, third or fourth favourites.
  • 10/20 (50%) – Winners were French bred horses.
  • 5/24 (21%) – Winners were favourites.

Ultima Handicap Chase Trends | Tuesday 14.50 | Channel 4

The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase is the new name given to the Festival Handicap Chase, formally known as the William Hill Trophy. The race was won in 2015 by the Neil Mulholland-trained The Druids Nephew.

  • 18/18 (100%) – All 18 of Paul Nicholls’ previous runners have been beaten.
  • 10/10 (100%) – Winners were aged between seven and 10.
  • 45/47 (96%) – Of runners aged 11+ have failed to place since 1997.
  • 14/16 (88%) – Winners were officially rated no higher than 143.
  • 12/15 (80%) – Winners carried lass than 11st.
  • 8/10 (80%) – Winners had won over 3m previously.
  • 11/15 (73%) – Winners came from the first four in the betting.
  • 7/10 (70%) – Winners had finished in the top-three in either or both of their previous two starts.
  • 7/13 (54%) – Winners had won on their previous outing.
  • 8/18 (44%) – Winners had previously placed the Festival.
  • 4/9 (44%) – Winners have been novices.
  • 3/10 (30%) – Winners were novices.
  • 2/30 (7%) – Winning favourites.

Champion Hurdle Trials | Tuesday 15.30 | Channel 4

The Champion Hurdle is the feature race of the first day of the Cheltenham Festival. This race brings together the best two-mile hurdlers in the sport. Willie Mullins’s Faugheen was a sublime winner in 2015 as he landed the Grade 1 in emphatic style.

  • 22/22 (100%) – No unplaced horse from the previous year’s renewal has won for 22 years.
  • 93/94 (99%) – Of five-year-olds have been beaten since 1985.
  • 83/85 (98%) – Winners were nine years-old or younger.
  • 25/26 (96%) – Of International Hurdle winners have been beaten.
  • 22/24 (92%) – Of Christmas Hurdle winners have been beaten.
  • 12/13 (92%) – Winners had finished in the top-three last time out.
  • 12/13 (92%) – Winners had raced at Cheltenham before.
  • 26/32 (81%) – Winners had won on their previous outing.
  • 8/10 (80%) – Winners had raced within the past 51 days.
  • 8/10 (80%) – Winners had won a Grade 1 hurdle previously.
  • 13/17 (76%) – Winners were either Irish trained or trained by Nicky Henderson
  • 9/13 (69%) – Favourites placed.
  • 21/31 (68%) – Winners finished in the first-four at last season’s Festival.
  • 7/13 (54%) – Winners came from outside the top-three in the betting.
  • 5/13 (38%) – Winners had won at the Festival the previous season.
  • 5/13 (38%) – Winners were favourites.

Mares’ Hurdle Trends | Tuesday 16.10 | Channel 4

The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle is the fifth race on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival and is run over two-and-a-half miles. Willie Mullins’s Glens Melody was a winner of the 2015 renewal as Annie Power dramatically fell at the last.

  • 8/8 (100%) – Winners finished in the top-three of a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle.
  • 8/8 (100%) – Winners had at least nine career starts previously.
  • 8/8 (100%) – A runner at 16/1 or bigger has finished in the first three.
  • 7/8 (87%) – Winners won on their previous outing.
  • 7/7 (87%) – Winners were trained by Willie Mullins.
  • 3/9 (33%) – Of Nicky Henderson’s runners have placed.

National Hunt Chase Trends | Tuesday 16.50 | Racing UK

This year is the 145th year of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup; it’s a race for amateur riders and ridden over a stamina sapping four miles. Last year’s winner was 8/1 shot Cause Of Causes trained by Gordon Elliott.

  • 15/15 (100%) – All of Paul Nicholls’ runners have been beaten despite 11 starting in the top-five of the betting.
  • 14/14 (100%) – Winners had contested at least three chases.
  • 69/70 (99%) – Of five and six year-olds have been beaten.
  • 28/32 (87%) – Winners had finished in the top-four in their last prep run.
  • 8/10 (80%) – Winners were aged seven or eight.
  • 8/10 (80%) – Winners had previously won over at least 3m.
  • 4/5 (80%) – Winners contested a Grade 1 novice chase earlier in the season.
  • 10/14 (71%) – Winners had finished first or second in their previous outing.
  • 3/5 (60%) – Winners were officially the top-rated horse.
  • 3/6 (50%) – Winners were favourites.
  • 4/9 (44%) – Winners had ran in a chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season.
  • 4/14 (295) – Winners were trained by Jonjo O’Neill.
  • 1/10 (10%) – Winners were Irish trained.

Novices’ Handicap Chase Trends | 17.30 | Channel 4

The Novices’ Handicap Chase was formally known as the Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase run on Thursday. There have only been a handful runnings of this race to date, with last year’s going the way of Rebecca Curtis’s Irish Cavalier.

  • 9/10 (90%) – Winners carried no more than 11st 7lb.
  • 9/11 (82%) – Winners had won or finished second in their previous outing.
  • 8/10 (80%) – Winners had won over at least 2m2f previously.
  • 8/11 (73%) – Winners were from the first in the betting.
  • 5/7 (71%) – Horses wearing first-time headgear have placed at big prices in the past seven runnings.
  • 7/11 (64%) – Winners had won no more than once over fences previously.
  • 6/11 (55%) – Winners were handicap chase debutants.
  • 5/11 (45%) – Winners were seven year-olds.
  • 4/11 (36%) – Winners had run in the previous season’s Festival.
  • 2/5 (40%) – Winners carried top weight.
  • 2/11 (18%) – Winners have started at odds larger than 12/1.

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