WE’VE a full round of midweek Bundesliga action to enjoy and Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) attempts to steer us in the right direction on Tuesday.
Ingolstadt v Koln | Tuesday 19.00 | BT Sport 2
For stats enthusiasts like myself, Ingolstadt’s debut Bundesliga season is incredibly hard to work out.
Die Schanzer have scored just 17 goals in 23 games (W8-D6-L9) yet have accumulated 30 points – that’s 1.76 points-per-goal – it’s truly remarkable.
Of the 17 goals Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men have scored, 11 have arrived from set-pieces, including five penalties. So here we are in March and we’re talking about a Bundesliga club with five goals from open play in 23 matches managing to win 8/23 (35%) and sit only six points off the Champions League qualifying positions.
How have they done it? Well, bar being ridiculously effective from dead-ball situations, Ingolstadt have kept eight clean sheets and shipped more than two goals in only five of their fixtures. The watertight backline marshalled by superb centre-half and skipper Marvin Matip has been their grounding alongside an aggressive pressing game.
Only fellow newly-promoted club Darmstadt have enjoyed lesser time in possession and played fewer short passes per-game than Die Schanzer. And no German top-flight club are playing more long balls per-match than Tuesday night’s hosts. It’s a simple, highly-tuned game plan that’s not exactly making them friends at home.
Hasenhüttl’s troops ended a winless run of eight on the road – failing to even score in five – when they downed Hamburg on Saturday to re-establish themselves in the top-half of the standings. But HSV described them as “disgusting” and compared the debutants to an American Football team.
Coming into this contest against Koln, Ingolstadt are chasing a fourth straight home league success but I’ve no interest in 6/4 quotes with the above trends screaming ‘avoid’ and ‘oppose’. So I shall get with Koln who are offered at 8/11 (Matchbook) with a +0.25 Asian Handicap start.
The visitors have only gained five points from six games since the winter break (W1-D2-L3) to slide into the bottom-half but the Billy Goats weren’t far off claiming a point in the derby at Gladbach and did hold Wolfsburg and Hamburg on the road during that spell.
Peter Stöger’s side successfully switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation in recent weeks and the defensively-minded team tend to rely on their solid foundations, preferring to play on the counter.
There is an overreliance on Anthony Modeste producing the goods up top – the French hitman has directly contributed to 14 of their 24 league goals – and their failure to record a clean sheet in their last nine is countered by the fact they’ve only conceded more than one goal in a game on four occasions.
Koln have only lost 4/11 (36%) of their away days this term and three of those have come against the top-four, with their most recent eight bringing about just two defeats. Only Stuttgart and Bayern are averaging more on-target efforts as guests so I fancy their chance of getting something here.
With the +0.25 Asian Handicap start, we’ll make money should Koln avoid defeat. We’ll bag a full-stakes win should the Billy Goats bag maximum points and a half-stakes win should the fixture end all-square – the only way in which we’ll lose is if Ingolstadt continue to defy the stats and pocket only a second success in seven against sides in 12th and above.
Elsewhere, you can’t go wrong taking the 8/11 (Stan James) on Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams Not To Score.
Ingolstadt have failed to beat the two-goal line in eight of their 10 home fixtures, in eight of their last nine as well as 83% of all their Bundesliga matches. It’s been a similar story for Koln in 11 of their last 16 away days and 61% of all their fixtures this season, including four of their last five.
Collectively, only 18/46 (39%) of the two teams’ games this season have seen both teams score but drilling down into home/away records returns just 9/22 collective BTTS winners (41%).
Odds of 8/11 suggest a 58% chance of this goals-based bet banking and that gives us a nice slice of value to go alongside the Koln play.
Ingolstadt V Koln – Koln +0.25 Asian Handicap (8/11 Matchbook)
Ingolstadt V Koln – Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams Not To Score (8/11 Stan James)
Want A Free Bet And £10 Cash?
Sign-up to Ladbrokes, Bet365 or Coral via any of the links on this page, deposit and place your first bet and drop us a line at email@example.com. We’ll then arrange for a free bet to be dropped into your brand new account and we’ll also cover your first bet with instant cash up to £10.
Remember folks, if you ever want to join a new bookmaker give us a shout – no other site will give you extra bonuses such as free bets and instant cash like WLB!
How To Claim Your Free Bet And Instant Cash:
- Register for a new account at Ladbrokes, Bet365 or Coral via any of the links on this page. If you don’t use a link from WLB, you won’t be valid.
- Deposit and place your first bet (up to £10).
- Email firstname.lastname@example.org to let us know your account username and the bookmaker you’ve joined.
- We’ll arrange for a £10 free bet to be dropped into your new account as well as £10 instant cash to cover your first bet.
- Remember, you’ll also be entitled to the new customer bonus or promotion with each of Ladbrokes, Bet365 or Coral. However, if you don’t join via the links on this page, you won’t be valid for our free bet and instant cash giveaway.
- Any questions? Just drop us an email or tweet us at @WeLoveBettingUK.
Want TWO Free Bets And £10 Cash?
We’re offering two free bets and £10 instant cash to all readers that register for a betting account with any of our nominated partners via this page.
We’ll then arrange for two free bets to be dropped into your betting accounts and we’ll also cover your first bet with instant cash up to £10.
Remember folks, if you ever want to join a new bookmaker give us a shout – no other site will give you extra bonuses like we do at WLB!
|Get treble the odds on your first bet when you sign-up at 888Sport|
|Claim up to £200 in bonuses when you join Bet365|
|Claim a £50 Welcome Bonus when you join Ladbrokes. Use code 'F50'|