NFL Tips | 13th December 2015


THE perfect treble last week for Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67). Now he’s aiming to do it all over again.

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles | Sunday 18:00

The first thing that struck me about this game was to stay away from it in the match betting markets as there are few teams as inconsistent as these two.

Philly ended last season looking as they were really on the up. The famed Chip Kelly Offence was really starting to click and you got the feeling that they were live contenders this year. But for reasons I still cannot work out, they traded their best receiver in years, Jeremy Maclin, away to the Chiefs and even more bizarrely gave up LeSean McCoy to today’s opponents.

To my eye, they have never at any point this season looked as balanced as they did 12 months ago. Sam Bradford swapped QB spots with Nick Foles and has struggled hugely.

Injury has not helped but Kelly looks like a man on the way out. Sports fans in Philadelphia are not known for their patience especially when it comes to the Eagles.

Rex Ryan on the other hand finally left New York and seems a far happier man. His decision during the summer to go with Tyrod Taylor under centre has looked like it may well pay dividends.

He’s another QB who has missed games through injury, but has clearly improved through the season as has his offence. The form of Sammy Watkins in recent weeks has been a huge boost and you get the feeling that Shady McCoy will be very keen to show Kelly exactly what he is missing. His replacement, DeMarco Murray just has not lived up to his almost MVP form in Dallas.

One bet stands out here. I have looked at Total Points and the Point Spread in depth and just cannot nail something I like. I do believe in Buffalo and Overs but what I really like here is Philadelphia to have the most Turnovers at a standout 11/8 with Hills. Neither Bradford or Murray protects the ball in the way you would like and I am a big fan of Taylor. Thats an outstanding price.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers | Sunday 18:00

Do I think Carolina will remain unbeaten after this game? Absolutely. Can they cover? No doubt. Its that time of the week, yes Atlanta are back in this column and like the last two weeks not in a good way.

The team that started 5-0 is now 6-6 with just one win in seven. Let’s just look at a few key numbers from those last seven games (Carolina you can wait out back, I’m done with you) …. 11 touchdowns and 9 INTs.

Four of those turnovers were in the Red Zone which is a league high. Matty Ice is completing just 66% of his throws. Devonta Freeman hasnt rushed for over 50 yards in what seems like decades. No rushing TDs in the last five games.

I think the Defence is actually under rated and they are 11th/12th in many categories. However, they have just allowed back to back games of 165 yards plus on the ground. Jonathan Stewart and cam can take advantage of that.

Most of the week, the line for this game was set at -10. I was delighted to see this morning that -7.5 is available at Evens with Skybet. As I said before the win in Dallas on Thanksgiving, I think Carolina is still under rated and that line will be my NAP of the week no doubt.

Detroit Lions @ St Louis Rams | Sunday 18:00

I try to avoid writing about the Rams. They are owned by Stan Kroenke, who happens to own my beloved Arsenal and so naturally I have something against them. I think I can give an honest assessment of this one though. I hope and believe that they are going to get taken apart by Detroit.

Oh Detroit. I was all over them 10 days ago at home to Green Bay. A really nice underdog winner was on the cards until a very poor call for a facemask penalty after the game was actually over, resulted in one more play and the at 61 yards, the longest Hail Mary in NFL history. No, I’m still not over it.

Looking at this from every angle, you really cannot envisage anything but a win for the Lions. Matt Stafford has lit it up in recent weeks. Megatron looks like he has found a new lease of life and I have always thought Golden Tate was a very decent number two receiver.

Rushing has been a huge issue all year but there are signs that Ameer Abdullah and Joique Bell can contribute down the stretch along with a defence that has shown up in recent weeks. Yes, I’m all over the Lions here and I like the spread I have found at -2.5.

Best Bets

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles – Philadelphia Most Turnovers (11/8 Hills)

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers – Carolina -7.5 (20/21 Betfair)

Detroit Lions @ St Louis Rams – Detroit -2.5 (10/11 Titanbet)

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About Author

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I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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