NFL Tips | Week 6 | 18th October 2015


AN NFL winner in the Thursday night game and now Louis Ross (@LouisRoss67) takes a look at three Sunday games for us.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills | Sunday 18:00 | Sky Sports 2

So the title of hottest team in the NFL (just before they take a fall) moves from Atlanta to Cincinnati. The Bengals have threatened this kind of thing for a number of years. There is an incredible amount of talent in all areas of the field.

AJ Green is as good a wideout as there is in the league. Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill give them a huge ground threat, the defence is mean and Andy Dalton is now leading this team, rather than hindering it.

The Bills have been very up and down although Tyrod Taylor has done a far better job under centre than I personally thought possible. The intention was to concentrate on player props this week but I think this is a game that the Bengals can make yet another statement in. They are scoring freely right now and I expect them to win and win good.

Washington Redskins @ New York Jets | Sunday 18:00

The Jets come off of a Bye Week to face a Redskins team that is allowing the fewest points in the NFL. This is a game that the Jets probably win, that probably goes under the total points line and that probably wont be seen much on Red Zone.

Probably is not really what we are looking for in terms of betting tips, so I am going to concentrate on an area that has been hugely profitable this season and that is player props.

There are a couple of ways to go here and it all depends how you see the game. The strength of both teams this season has been the ground game and with some very decent running backs on show in Chris Ivory, Alfred Morris and Matt Jones, I want to look at the Quarterbacks and their Passing stats.

Neither Kirk Cousins or Ryan Fitzpatrick are players you would want leading your side. The New York Jets rank 24 of 32 on passing offence with an average of 229 Yards per game. Washington allow just 224 yards per game. In a game with two good defences and attacks that hold on to the ball for a long time, I like Ryan Fitzpatrick to go Under 242.5 in what could be a borefest (not sure that’s a word).

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions | Sunday 18:00

I really do not like writing about my own team. For one, I have written them off a couple of times this year and it has come back to bite me. There is a way to get the Bears onside here though.

Two last minute wins in two weeks has turned everything around at Soldier Field. Jay Cutler is back and healthy (yay) and receivers are slowly getting fit and producing.

The Lions on the other hand are in freefall. They were absolutely smashed at home by the Cardinals and look in big trouble. The Lions talent is mainly in the offense these days, the other side of the ball has them struggling.

They were taken apart mainly on the ground by Arizona and they now face one of the very best RBs of the last decade in Matt Forte. Forte is incredibly consistent and is facing a side that allows an average of 126 Yards per game Rushing, I will take him to beat his Rushing Line today and back over 75.5 with Ladbrokes.

Best Bets

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills – Cincinnati -3 (10/11 Bet365)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills - Cincinnati Over 2.5 Team Touchdowns (5/6 Bet365)

Washington Redskins @ New York Jets – Ryan Fitzpatrick Under 242.5 Yards Passing (5/6 Bet365)

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions – Matt Forte Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (10/11 Ladbrokes)

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About Author

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I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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