IT’S Women’s Semi-Final day at Wimbledon. Mark Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) has two bets to share.
Garbine Muguruza v Agnieszka Radwanska | Thursday 13:00 | BBC Two
21 year-old Garbine Muguruza enters her first grand-slam semi-final as somewhat of a surprise. Having previously won just one match here and after early exits in Eastbourne and Birmingham, Muguruza apparently practiced here with Petra Kvitova and something just clicked. She’s impressively taken out all of Timea Bacsinszky, Caroline Wozniacki and Angelique Kerber to get here.
2012 runner-up Agnieszka Radwanska has had somewhat of a disappointing year. Her best results had only been making the quarters of Doha and the semi’s of Katowice. Things have picked up during the grass court season, making the semi’s of Nottingham and final of Eastbourne but lost them both and noticeably suffered deciding set bagels.
Radwanska doesn’t have many offensive weapons and Madison Keys probably should have beaten her had she not managed a massive 40 unforced errors alongside her 48 winners in-comparison to Radwanska’s 13-7 ratio.
I expect Garbine to be a lot more consistent and hit through Aggy has she has done in both of her victories against the Pole already this year on the quick courts of Dubai and Sydney.
Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova | Thursday 14:30 | BBC Two
Serena Williams played by far her best match of the tournament in what was a really high quality contest against Victoria Azarenka in the quarter finals.
Vika took the opening set with some great tennis but Serena raised her level even higher to come back, taking seven straight games at one point, to record a convincing win. In all she served 17 aces, won 80% of her 1st serves, hitting 46 winners and recorded just 12 unforced errors.
On the other hand Maria Sharapova’s victory was rather gifted to her by an under-performing Coco Vandeweghe. Coco really let herself down, especially on her serve, hitting just two aces, eight double faults and converting only three of her 14 break points.
Indeed she hit 32 winners past Maria and if she had improved her serve could quite easily have won. Sharapova meanwhile continued her struggles on serve when missing her first one, recording 10 double faults and winning just 36% of points won on that 2nd serve. She was a negative 20-23 on winners-unforced errors and has been very fortunate with her soft route to the semi’s.
Overall it’s 15-38 aces-double faults, compared to Serena’s 55 aces and less than 10 on the doubles. Serena will really go after Maria’s serve and there’s only going to be one winner, especially if history is anything to go by.
This will be the 20th meeting between the two, spanning 12 years, and Serena leads by an overwhelming 17-2 with Maria having not beaten her for over a decade.
Since returning from her injury lay-off in 2011, Serena has won 10 of the 11 meetings 2-0 (7/10) including on the grass here in the 2012 Olympic final 6-0 6-1. On average Serena has beaten Maria by 6.5 games that’s why I make the value bet here -4.5 games at 5/6.
Garbine Muguruza v Agnieszka Radwanska – Muguruza to win (37/40 BetVictor)
Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova – Williams -4.5 Games (5/6 Sportingbet)
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