ANOTHER two winners from his weekend La Liga picks, Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns in search of profit in Monday night’s Spanish offering between Cordoba and Getafe.
Cordoba v Getafe | Monday 19.45
It’s now or never for Cordoba. Nine months ago they secured an incredible play-off winning promotion to return to La Liga after a 42-year absence. Now Los Califas are running out of time in their bid to stay in the Spanish top-flight.
Sitting rock bottom on the back of six successive league defeats and seven points from safety, the White & Greens’ boss Miroslav Djukic insists only three points will do when Getafe come to town. The Andalusian outfit are winless since 12th January and have scored just twice in their last five games.
Cordoba fell 1-0 at Espanyol last weekend and Djukic isn’t expected to make too many changes to his side after a spirited performance. Main goal threat Nabil Ghilas should return to the squad and I do fancy the hosts to get themselves on the scoresheet.
Firstly, Los Califas have only been shutout in 4/13 (31%) of their La Liga fixtures at Nuevo Arcangel since promotion but more importantly (I feel), are the bullish words and mind-set of Djukic who said, “There are 13 finals left until the end of the season and Monday is the first of them. We’re going all out for this game.“
Despite their decent record of scoring in front of their home supporters, the White & Greens have only kept four clean sheets themselves and a W1-D6-L6 record is enough to make you run a mile from siding with either team in the Match Odds markets or even Asian Handicaps.
So instead, I’ll take a punt on Both Teams To Score (25/19 888 Sport). It’s a little overpriced and if Djukic is to be believed, this could be quite an entertaining match with both sides going for the jugular – remember Getafe are sitting just two points clear of the relegation zone themselves!
The resignation of manager Quique Sanchez Flores two weeks ago came as a surprise to the Deep Blues and a 3-2 loss at Malaga last time out, in what was Pablo Franco’s first game in charge, highlighted the best and worst of El Geta. The capital club are fragile travellers and that’s seen in their poor road record over the past season-and-a-half – losing 19/31 (61%).
Getafe have lost their last four away and have taken a solitary point on their travels since 31st October. But the visitors will carry a goalscoring threat. Alvaro Vazquez has hit a purple patch, netting four goals in his last four La Liga outings; the Spaniard is also responsible for five of Getafe’s last eight league goals while the forgotten man Pedro Leon is starting to find his range on the right of El Geta’s attacking trident behind Vazquez.
Of those 31 Getafe away games since the start of 2013/14, 13 (42%) have produced BTTS winners and alongside the 8/13 (62%) of Cordoba’s home matches to follow the same pattern, means the likelihood of a repeat should be around the 52% mark. However, the 25/19 odds from 888 Sport suggest it’s a 43% chance of success, giving us a value bet.
I’m also keen to have a slice of the 13/12 from BetVictor on Over 2 Goals on the Asian Goals line. Taking this selection means we’ll get our cash back should exactly two goals be scored but have ourselves a winner if three or more goals are netted.
In seven of the nine home La Liga matches Djukic has taken charge of, Cordoba games have seen at least two goals scored at the Nuevo Arcangel. Looking at Getafe’s away matches, 10/12 (83%) have also featured at least two goals. If we’re backing Over 2 Goals, it means we have a better than 80% chance of hitting the two-goal threshold for insurance with a third goal banking profit!
Cordoba v Getafe – Both Teams To Score (25/19 888 Sport)
Cordoba v Getafe – Over 2 Goals on the Asian Goals line (13/12 BetVictor)
What do you make of Mark’s analysis? Should be backing goals on Monday night?
Let us know your views in the comments box below!