The Mercer Mix | 7th February 2015

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THE ultimate WeLoveBetting column this weekend! It’s the Mercer Mix! Danny Mercer (@OneDannyMercer) takes us through his five best bets from the weekend card.

Team Goals

League Two is the destination for my Team Goals selection this week as I’m getting with Plymouth Argyle. Yes, Argyle have been struggling of late with seven winless league games pushing them out of the play-off picture, but their Saturday opponents Accrington have hardly been flying either. They’ve lost four in a row and are moving towards the relegation soup.

John Sheridan’s side look value at 23/20 with William Hill to score two or more against this poor Accrington side on Saturday. Stanley have conceded the most away league goals in the league this season with 28 leaked in 14 road trips. Overall they’ve conceded two or more in 14 of their 27 league games and confidence will be low after being smashed 5-1 last week by Northampton.

Plymouth have scored in 12 of their 14 home league games and with Reuben Reid, Lewis Alessandra and  Ryan Brunt amongst their arsenal I’m pretty confident this bet will land.

Win & BTTS

Watford sit only three places above opponents Blackburn in the table, but the fact they’re eight points clear of them is more telling. I feel that gap will show on Saturday in what should be an exciting match. Slavisa Jokanovic’s side are just seven points off top spot so there’s lots at stake here in this match.

At Vicarage Road, Watford are a tough nut to crack with 35 goals registered in their 14 home league games and I think this game will come down to the respective strikeforces, and for me Watford have more impressive personnel in the shape of Troy Deeney, Matej Vydra and Odion Ighalo. Don’t worry though, Jordan Rhodes and Rudy Gestede will pose a real threat for Blackburn too.

It’s Watford and BTTS in this game for me. That’s landed six times in the Hornets 14 home matches this season, higher than any other side in the Championship. At the other end of the pitch they’ve kept just two clean sheets so I can see them conceding. Blackburn have only failed to score away in just two away league games this season, so I’m expecting both sides to get goals but Watford to collect the three points.

Anytime Goalscorer

I’ve got a name for you this weekend. Sammie Szmodics. I’m backing this young Colchester lad to notch and take another step up the ladder towards a big future in the game.

The 19 year old scored a bucket-load of goals in the youth side last season and was a key part in them winning trophies. Since Tony Humes has came in Szmodics has been a starter.

He came on and scored against Gillingham on Boxing Day and since then has started the last six matches and is getting better every week. Szmodics has had two goals disallowed during these games and I feel it’s only a matter of time before he finds the net again. His Colchester side face Crewe on Saturday so Sammie will get chances and at 9/2 with Skybet looks way overpriced for a guy of his ability.

First Half Performance

One of the key games of the weekend brings together Tranmere and Carlisle and make no mistake this is a massive game. Both sides are just two points clear of the relegation zone but I can see Micky Adams’ men pulling further clear on Saturday and go six games unbeaten.

Carlisle start games very poorly. They’ve conceded a first half goal in nine of their last 12 away league games and have leaked 29 overall before the half-time whistle. 80% of all first half goals in their matches have been scored by their opponents. Brutal eh?

In-form Tranmere have scored in the first half in four of their last five league games and have scored overall in their last seven home matches. They look value at Evens with Coral to score in the first half on Saturday.

Vanarama Value

Ok, this isn’t officially a Vanarama tie, but it’s two sides from those divisions playing in the FA Trophy Quarter-Finals. It’s nicely matched actually with North Ferriby eighth in the Conference North taking on Ebbsfleet from the same position in the Conference South.

Ebbsfleet are the money bags of the non league and have managed to lure players from higher up the pyramid to play for them. The likes of Danny Kedwell, Matt Fish and Adam Cunnington have all joined in the last few months and with the addition of Mark Gower in the last few days they looked stocked in experience.

Even though North Ferriby are unbeaten in eight, for me Ebbsfleet have too much quality, experience and goals all over their side. They’ve beaten much stronger sides so far in this competition than Ferriby and I’m backing them at 5/4 with Sportingbet to win here.

Best Bets

Plymouth Argyle v Accrington – Plymouth to score Over 1.5 Goals (23/20 William Hill)

Watford v Blackburn – Watford to win and both teams to score (3/1 BWin)

Colchester v Crewe – Sammie Szmodics to score anytime (9/2 Skybet)

Tranmere v Carlisle – Tranmere to score Over 0.5 First Half Goals (Evens Coral)

North Ferriby v Ebbsfleet United – Ebbsfleet United to win (13/10 BetVictor)

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I was brought into the betting world from a young age when my parents asked me to pick out a few horses. I’ve been hooked since but only seriously started punting in the past four years. I’ve used my wealth of knowledge from the English game along with my passion for stats and trends to try to find that winning angle. I work hard but enjoy nothing more than studying the form in the hope of getting that extra edge, whether it be from the non-leagues or the Premier League. And if I can help anyone pocket a few quid, it makes the hard work even more worthwhile.

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