The Mercer Mix | 14th February 2015

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FANCY learning something? Just read this week’s edition of the Mercer Mix. Danny (@OneDannyMercer) guides us through four bets he’ll be getting involved with this weekend.

Team Goals

Leyton Orient are struggling at the bottom of the League One table and since Fabio Liverani has come in it’s got worse with six defeats from his nine games at the helm. I reckon Chesterfield can expose them on Saturday.

The Spireites have lost their prolific striker Eoin Doyle to Cardiff, but still have loads of goals in them with Caolan Lavery, Sam Clucas, Armand Gnanduillet  and Byron Harrison amongst their rank. Paul Cook’s side have scored two or more goals in five of their last seven home league games and bulged the net twice against Orient in August. On top of that they’ve scored two or more in 14 of their 29 league games.

The O’s have conceded two or more in seven of their last nine away league games, plus in 15 of their 28 league games this season so Chesterfield look great value to me at 23/20 with William Hill to find the net at least twice.

Win & BTTS

AFC Telford host Dartford on Saturday and with both sides kicking about in the wrong end of the Conference table this is a massive game. Telford climbed off the bottom last week for the first time in five months and Steve Kittrick has done a great job in trying to stop the bleeding since he got the job in December.

His side have lost just once in their last six and beaten the likes of Aldershot and Wrexham. They should have beaten Eastleigh too after going 3-1 up but had to settle for a draw. Opponents Dartford haven’t won in six now and have lost nine of their last 11 whilst shipping 27 in the process. 11 defeats in their last 14 away games plus five losses by match result and both teams to score from their last 10 spells trouble.

I’ll back Telford to win and both teams to score at 16/5 with 888 Sport. There have been 61 goals in the last eight matches from both these sides so expect the goals to flow.

First Half Performance

Southport are really struggling at the moment and sit just above the Conference relegation places on goal difference. No win in five and four of those defeats equals gloom at the North West club. They’ve now also lost their best striker John Marsden to Lincoln on loan.

The Sandgrounders tend to leak a lot of goals and I’m pretty confident Macclesfield can shoot them down early on Saturday. They were 3-0 up at half-time when the sides met earlier in the season and I expect the same on Saturday.

Macclesfield are flying just now in second place just five points behind Barnet. They’ve won five league games on the spin, scoring two or more in all of them. The Silkmen have scored in the first half in four of their last five league games and with Adriano Moke and Matthew Barnes-Homer purring at the moment they should be too strong early doors. I’ll back them to score in the first half at Evens with Sportingbet.

Second Half Performance

Sheffield United tend to be quite slow starters in their matches, I mean 29 of their 36 league goals this season have come in the second half. No ambiguity there then. They face Bristol City on Saturday and I can see the match coming to the boil in the latter half.

We know Bristol City are a force at Ashton Gate and bang the goals in for fun, so I’m expecting them to score here. Interestingly out of the 53 goals they’ve scored in the league so far, 30 have come in the second half. There’s a theme developing here.

City have scored in 11 of their last 12 home league games in the second half while Nigel Clough’s side have seen both teams score in the second half in four of their last seven League One fixtures. The stats back me up – it’s got to be Second Half BTTS at 11/4 with Coral.

Best Bets

Chesterfield v Leyton Orient – Chesterfield to score Over 1.5 Goals (23/20 William Hill)

AFC Telford v Dartford – AFC Telford to win and both teams to score (16/5 888 Sport)

Southport v Macclesfield – Macclesfield Over 0.5 First Half Goals (Evens Sportingbet)

Bristol City v Sheffield United – Both Teams To Score In Second Half (11/4 Coral)

Want More?

I’ve also shared my favourite Conference bets as well as my Anytime Goalscorer fancies for the weekend.

Good luck all!

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I was brought into the betting world from a young age when my parents asked me to pick out a few horses. I’ve been hooked since but only seriously started punting in the past four years. I’ve used my wealth of knowledge from the English game along with my passion for stats and trends to try to find that winning angle. I work hard but enjoy nothing more than studying the form in the hope of getting that extra edge, whether it be from the non-leagues or the Premier League. And if I can help anyone pocket a few quid, it makes the hard work even more worthwhile.

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