NFL Tips | 4th January 2015

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TWO more NFL games tonight to bet on. Louis Ross (@KingLouis2105) sits on the hotseat and takes us through both games.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts | Sunday 18:00 | Sky Sports 2

Welcome to Wildcard Weekend part two. A finely balanced third game sees the Cincinnati Bengals take on Andrew Luck. Yes, not the Indianapolis Colts just their QB.

Let’s be honest, as much as I like Indy, they have very little else. Especially anything resembling a rushing game. Losing Ahmad Bradshaw was huge for the Colts. It even affected what was becoming a stellar season for Luck. His numbers dropped dramatically in the last four or five weeks of the regular season.

The Bengals are not an easy pick here. Andy Dalton is one of the most frustrating QBs in the NFL. His 0-3 playoff record is not exactly a confidence builder, nor the 27-0 hammering they took from the Colts back in Week 7. However, that was back when Luck was crushing all in front of him and built on the base of a solid rushing attack.

AJ Green against Vontae Davies (if AJ plays after concussion) could be a key matchup, but the guy I like in this game is Jeremy Hill. 395 rushing yards in his last three games is elite level and I see him having a huge influence here. The Bengals defence has also stepped up in the last few weeks. Three is a key number in Handicap betting and Bengals +3.5 (20/21 BetVictor) is far too tempting and will do for me here.

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys | Sunday 21:40 | Sky Sports 2

I really like the Cowboys (ok, I said it). They may be the only team with a prayer of winning at Seattle and let’s face it, someone is going to have to if last seasons Super Bowl winners are not going to repeat.

Matt Stafford, the Lions QB has an awful record in big games. 0-16 on the road against teams with a winning record is as bad as it gets. Joique Bell has a huge task at RB to take some of the pressure off the Detroit passing game.

No doubt that the Lions have one of the best defences in the game, but to be honest I really see the Cowboys improving their bizarre home record of 4-4 with a degree of ease here. DeMarco Murray has been almost unstoppable this season and Tony Romo seems to have stepped up to a new level on the back of an elite Running Back.

Dallas put up some huge numbers in the closing weeks of the season and have just about the best Offensive Line in the NFL as well as weapons on offence like Murray, Dez Bryant and any number of options such as Cole Beasley making regular and important contributions.

Scoring in every quarter is never an easy thing to do, but the Cowboys are purring right now. Cowboys to score in every quarter is 2/1 with Bet365. Those are odds I like a lot. You may find Dallas -6.5 (20/21 BetVictor) an easier bet to take on, but it is Dallas keeping the scoreboard ticking that I am prepared to take a punt on.

Best Bets

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis – Cincinnati +3.5 (20/21 BetVictor)

Detroit @ Dallas – Dallas to score in every quarter (2/1 Bet365)

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I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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