THERE’S midweek action in the Scottish Premiership as Inverness host St Johnstone. With both sides in the Top 6 mix, how does Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) see it going?
Inverness CT v St Johnstone | Tuesday 19:45
Both these sides have enjoyed the 2014/15 season and will see it as a positive campaign so far. St Johnstone, to be fair, had a disappointing start but have managed to turn it round magnificently.
Ten games into the league season Tommy Wright’s team sat down in 9th place after seven defeats to their name. This poor form looked a combination of losing Stevie May to Sheffield Wednesday and perhaps suffering a hangover after their superb Scottish Cup win last season.
Since then they won seven of their following 11 fixtures and climbed into the Top 6. Two recent defeats to Aberdeen on New Years Day and Hamilton three days later (Alex Neil’s last game in charge) can be excused.
Opponents Inverness go into this game at odds on. When I see a side odds on in the Scottish Premiership (except Celtic) I get a bit nervous. The league is so tight and unpredictable that it usually makes sense to avoid short things.
John Hughes’ side though have had a superb season. They sit up in fourth, nine points ahead of St Johnstone and six behind leaders Aberdeen with a game in hand. They did however lose 4-0 at home to Partick Thistle last month in a WTF result that really only could happen in Scotland.
BetVictor go 5/6 on Inverness and I’m torn to be honest. Seven wins in their 11 home league games this season reeks of a confident side and they’ve had an extra seven days rest with their match on Saturday at Dundee United postponed due to the weather, but do I want to play at those odds against an in-form side?
Naturally Inverness find it harder against Top 6 sides. They’ve failed to score more than one goal in four of their last five matches against current Top 6 sides and with St Johnstone only scoring 19 total goals all league season (less than bottom side Ross!) it might be a case to suggest we won’t be so much action. The Saints have failed to score more than once away from home since August in the league.
Sadly the bookmakers have priced this up beautifully and to be totally honest there’s no real value in these prices. My job is to find a winner though and sometimes it’s difficult to find an edge over the layers. Sportingbet are going 9/5 on Under 1.5 Goals and that looks about right. You can’t grumble about a 9/5 winner, but while this is the best bet in this game, it’s not necessarily a value one.
Inverness CT v St Johnstone – Under 1.5 Goals (9/5 Sportingbet)