NFL Tips | 9th November 2014

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IT’S Week 10 of the NFL and we got Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) to give us his three best bets.

Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Sunday 18:00 | Channel 4

The final game in London is on this weekend, so thought I’d have a look for a decent bet on it. A lot of this game will depend on if Dallas QB Tony Romo suits up, but regardless as to which QB starts there is always one constant – TE Jason Witten. The veteran has started to emerge over the last couple of games and I’ll be backing him to get Over 50.5 receiving yards against the Jags at Wembley.

Over the last two games, when the QB position wasn’t settled, Witten totalled 11 receptions and 132 yards – he is the ultimate security blanket for QBs.

Regardless as to who is at QB for the Cowboys, he looks set to have good numbers again. The Jaguars have allowed 527 yards across 9 games to opposing TEs, which is a higher average total per game than what we’ll need Witten, who is one of the best TEs in the league, to rack up.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets | Sunday 18:00

Has anyone been watching the Steelers over the last three games? The offense has been astonishing. Against the Jets, who can’t seem to stop the killer mistakes and turnovers, I’ll be taking the Steelers -3.5.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has been in historic form recently. Last week he became the only QB in NFL history to have two 500 yard games as well the only one to have 6 TDs in back-to-back games. In fact, the 12 TDs over the last two games are more than Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have managed all season.

To add to this, he’s thrown for 862 yards with a completion % of 75.6 – he really is in great form. Going up against a Jets defence that has allowed opposing QBs a rating of 112.8 you really would expect this to continue.

It’s obviously not just the QB though as the whole Steelers offense has been firing of late. Over the last three games they have put up 41.3 PPG and 447 YPG. They look like they are finally playing to their potential.

The Jets have looked okay between the 20s, but have really struggled putting points on the board. They will need to reverse that in a big way to compete with the Steelers and I can’t see it happening.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders | Sunday 21:05

The Patriots win over the Broncos last week helped soften the blow of another frustrating week of betting. That win could hopefully help start us off with a winner this week. A normal Peyton Manning should be too much for a winless Raiders team, but with an angry one I can’t see the Raiders even being in this one. Broncos to lead at the end of every quarter is what I’ll be backing here.

Since he joined the Broncos in 2012, Manning has beaten the Raiders by a combined 80 points in the 4 games they’ve played. He threw 11 TDs in those games while also completing a ridiculous 81% of his passes. Safe to say, he’s had their number.

You would say that despite being winless, the Raiders have been playing better since they made a coaching change and the development of rookie QB Derek Carr is promising. Unfortunately for them he is getting no help from Oakland’s running game, which ranks last in the league. This won’t get any better in this game either, as Denver is #1 against the run.

Broncos to get ahead and stay ahead at odds-against? Yes please!

Best Bets

Dallas @ Jacksonville – Jason Witten Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (10/11 Ladbrokes)

Pittsburgh @ NY Jets – Pittsburgh -3.5 (Evens Skybet)

Denver @ Oakland – Broncos To Lead At The End Of Every Quarter (5/4 Bet365)

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Tom got into betting after taking a marketing role at Sportingbet in 2009. He's since moved on to IT, but has remained within the industry. His passion in both betting and watching is the NFL, but also follows many other sports. Other interests include rock music, following the Patriots and being confused as to which Nottingham Forest team will show up each week.

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