NFL Tips | 2nd November 2014

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Our NFL man Tom Selwyn (@tom_selwyn) returns with three Week 9 gridiron tips.

San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins | Sunday 18:00

I’m really looking forward to this match-up down in Miami and I’ve got two picks in what should hopefully be a very entertaining game! I will be backing Over 44.5 Points and I’ll also be taking Miami RB Lamar Miller to go Over 66.5 Rushing Yards against the San Diego defence.

Miller going over the total seems like a no-brainer when you consider what the Chargers have been doing, or not doing, against opposing rushing attacks of late; they have given up nearly 150 yards a game in their current two-game losing streak.

Miami themselves average 138 rushing yards a game, so this looks like a very favourable match-up for Miller, who with Knowshon Moreno out of the line-up, gets the bulk of the carries for the Dolphins.

Both of these teams are quite high-scoring, with Miami averaging 24.9 points a game, while San Diego average 25.6 but are getting those points in very different ways.

San Diego has next to no running game and are having to rely on QB Philip Rivers to carry the offense. Normally this is not a recipe for success, but whilst they aren’t getting much from the rushing attack, they aren’t getting away from it easily either (they are near the top of the league in attempts) and are able to keep some balance in the team because of this.

Conversely, as mentioned above, Miami has a very good running game and aren’t forcing their QB, Ryan Tannehill, to shoulder the load. This does lead to a more methodical than explosive offense however and they have zero TDs from outside the red-zone this season, which is quite incredible half way through the season.

I think both teams will have their offenses firing, trading TDs and racking up the score.

Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings | Sunday 18:00

It was a huge win for the Redskins last week with them going into Dallas and beating a very good Cowboys team. I saw some things I liked from the Redskins, especially on defence, and will be backing them to beat the Vikings.

What Washington did against Dallas was blitz, blitz and blitz again. The Cowboys OL could not handle it and gave up five sacks on the day, which included QB Tony Romo being knocked out the game. Now, the Vikings OL is nowhere near as good as the Cowboys OL and if they aren’t successful dealing with the Washington’s blitzes, it will be a tough afternoon for their rookie QB.

Even before the news that QB Robert Griffen would be making his return in this game, I feel that the Redskins have a lot more talent offensively with the likes of DeSean Jackson on the outside. Adding Griffen back into this will make them even better, especially with the running attack. With the added threat Griffen brings on scrambles and QB draws, RB Alfred Morris should find more room to run.

I do expect Griffen to be a little rusty on his return and struggle at points, but I believe that both offensively and defensively they should have too much for the Vikings to handle in this one.

Best Bets

San Diego @ Miami – Over 44.5 Points (10/11 Betfred)

San Diego @ Miami – Lamar Miller Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (5/6 Paddy Power)

Washington @ Minnesota – Evens (Skybet)

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Tom got into betting after taking a marketing role at Sportingbet in 2009. He's since moved on to IT, but has remained within the industry. His passion in both betting and watching is the NFL, but also follows many other sports. Other interests include rock music, following the Patriots and being confused as to which Nottingham Forest team will show up each week.

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