Just the 380/1 treble for award-nominated Gavin Horsfall (@ghorsfall) this week as he looks to make it a staggering eight winning weekends from 11 for the Anytime Notebook.
Plymouth v Carlisle | 15.00
There’s lots of content up on my blog this week, some of which talks about Carlisle being in a positive frame of mind. That’s something we never expected to be doing at least a month ago. Keith Curle has come in and done exceptionally well – it took him 45 minutes to find out what was going wrong after they went 3-0 down at Mansfield. But since then, things are going well as they’ve scored 10 and conceded just one in nine halves of football.
There are similarities between this Carlisle side to the one Curle managed at Notts County a few seasons back. A big target man up top and a whole host of goals from midfield. Here we have Mark Beck leading the line then Kyle Dempsey, Brad Potts, David Amoo and this week’s selection Steven Rigg (3/1 Bet365) banging them in behind.
Rigg’s come up through non-league and done really well, scored a few and put in a number of positive performances. He’s playing in that area just behind Beck and that’s where you tend to get the most value out of goalscorer bets.
So the Cumbrians head down to Plymouth, who are defensively sound and finally seem to be going well under John Sherdian. They’ve won five of their last eight and kept a whole host of clean sheets and are receiving plenty of praise from Sheridan for their defensive work. But I just get the feeling that Carlisle offer something a little bit different and could cause them some problems on Saturday.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Newport
Look out for a few words on Dagenham on the blog this week as I’m a fan. Indifferent form from Wayne Burnett’s side has definitely put him under a little bit of pressure but it was a good three points last time out when beating Accrington, who had won five of their previous six.
So now could be the time to get with the Daggers. They weren’t playing well before half-time but Burnett made a few changes and Ade Yussuf’s another young lad that’s come from non-league and done really well, scoring two. So he looks the kind of player that could generate some good feeling in the dressing room.
Burnett will also be pleased after changing formation from the 4-3-3 and switching to two up front. So he’s made a change that’s had a positive effect – that’s another positive frame of mind and they can begin to look forward rather than over their shoulder.
Their recent games at home have seen them overrun by the likes of Cambridge and Northampton – two of the divisions most potent strike forces. But that’s not the case with Newport. We spoke about County before their game at Oxford and whilst they’re solid enough on the road, they pose much less of a goal threat.
I’m going to put Abu Ogogo (8/1 Paddy Power) up. Twelve of his 16 goals in the last couple of years have all come at home, he plays in that central-midfield role and often gets forward too. He made the Notebook a couple of times last year and 8/1 just seems far too big.
Hartlepool v Luton | 15.00
We mentioned Hartlepool last week and they duly went and won away at Exeter. I talked about the change in formation, which looks like a 4-3-3, and the fact that they were now playing with a bit more freedom.
I mentioned Ryan Brobbel (6/1 Paddy Power) who looks a lovely price but an even better price is Lewis Hawkins (11/1 Paddy Power) who’s the third player in the front free, playing the other side of Charlie Wyke. Hawkins had a hand in both last week’s goals plus had a couple of chances himself and one attempt cleared off the line.
Paddy Power have got his price all wrong. At 11/1 he’s going off twice the price he should be. Now Luton don’t concede many but quite simply, the price is far too big to ignore. So Lewis Hawkins it is!
Plymouth v Carlisle – Steven Rigg (3/1 Bet365)
Dagenham v Newport – Abu Ogogo (8/1 Paddy Power)
Hartlepool v Luton – Lewis Hawkins (11/1 Paddy Power)