Premier League Tips | 27th September 2014

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THREE days of Premier League action this weekend. Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) gives us his three picks.

Chelsea v Aston Villa | Saturday 15:00

If you’ve been watching my videos you’ll know I’m looking to take on Aston Villa at every opportunity this season. The original plan this week was to back Chelsea to win to nil but it’s somewhat alarming that they’ve shipped seven goals already this league campaign. Instead I’ve gone with them -1, a bet that’s paid out on all their four winning Premier League fixtures this season.

Let’s remember Aston Villa have scored just four goals this season and have registered a measly eight shots on target. Marry that with the fact Chelsea have scored 16, five more than any other club and there’s reason to believe that the -1 bet looks good. Paddy Power are going 4/6 and that interest me.

Sunderland v Swansea | Saturday 15:00

Tipping a 4/6 shot? Brave eh? Fair enough, but this one is a bit bigger. When I looked at the odds this weekend my gut feel was that Man Utd, Southampton and Swansea were too short in the betting. I’m amazed that most bookmakers have the Swans as favourites in this clash.

Yes, they’ve started the season well with with three wins under their belt against modest Burnley, WBA and car-crash esque Man Utd but since then they’ve lost to Chelsea and at home to Southampton. Again, hardly criminal behaviour. Their emphatic Capital One win over Everton midweek reeked of a side taking the competition seriously and it may just be that tiredness will be a factor here for those players.

Sunderland have lost fewer games than Swansea in the league this season. Yeah, that surprised you eh? They’re unbeaten at home despite facing Man Utd and Tottenham and overall have just 1 loss in 5 on home turf in the league.

This provides the club with a great opportunity to kick-start their season. They’re up against a side whose league form has dipped in recent weeks and are available at a rather large 15/8 with BetVictor.

Arsenal v Tottenham | Saturday 17:30 | Sky Sports 1

This is my bet of the weekend. In fact, this is my bet of the season so far! I’m all over Arsenal here for three strong reasons. Let me explain.

Firstly, I think they’re fundamentally a better team than Tottenham. Their season so far has been fairly positive, dropped points against Man City, Everton and Leicester hardly scream crisis. Last week’s win against Aston Villa suggested a fruitful partnership between Danny Welbeck and Mesut Ozil might just be coming together. It bodes well. Spurs on the other hand have taken just one point from their last nine available and have lost (heavily) to Liverpool and WBA. There’s a sense that Maurico Pochettino is finding his way round the job and the North London derby looks a mighty task when learning the ropes.

Secondly, Arsenal have a phenomenal home record at the moment in the Premier League. They haven’t experienced home defeat in 20 league matches. Back on opening day 2013 was the last time they slipped up at the Emirates and that’s a fearsome record.

Thirdly, Spurs seems to hit a mental wall when they arrive in Islington. Looking at the sides clashes at Arsenal in the 21st century they make grim reading for Tottenham. P19 W1 D4 L14. Ouch! I don’t expect that to improve on Saturday night. 4/5 Arsenal with Ladbrokes? Yum!

Best Bets

Chelsea v Aston Villa – Chelsea to win by more than one goal (4/6 Paddy Power)

Sunderland v Swansea – Sunderland to win (15/8 BetVictor)

Arsenal v Tottenaham – Arsenal to win (4/5 Ladbrokes)

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Chris first got interested in betting back in 2000 when he began working in betting shops throughout Scotland. He has remained in the industry ever since, specialising in marketing and PR roles. Outside of betting, his interests are listening to Blur and following Queen Of The South.

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