NFL Tips | Week 4 |28th September 2014

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FRESH from nailing a full house for the second time in three weeks, Tom Selwyn (@tom_selwyn) has lined up another NFL treble here.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers | Sunday 21:05

Given the size of the handicap in this one, I’m going to go to the well again and take the Chargers to lead after every quarter.

The Jaguars were awful last week, giving up 30 points in the first half alone. And that was at home! Travelling across the country to face an in-form San Diego team does not bode well for them.

Rookie QB Blake Bortles is now the Jaguars’ starter after Chad Henne was benched last week and he should provide a bit more of an offensive spark, but they just aren’t talented enough on either side of the ball to stop the Chargers getting ahead and staying in front.

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers | Sunday 21:25

Given the form of these respective teams going into this one, I was shocked when I saw that the Philadelphia could be had at better than 2/1 in some places. I believe the Eagles are the better team right now and that’s while I’ll be snapping up that price.

You just have to look at each team’s 2nd half form this season to see where they’re both at right now. The 49ers have only managed 3 points all season, which is an astonishingly low total for a team with a lot of talent on offense. Conversely, the Eagles have put up a massive 74 points in the 2nd half of games, which points to good adjustments from their coaching staff.

I also like the matchup between the Eagles’ receivers and the 49ers secondary. San Francisco struggled against both the Bears and the Cardinals, giving up a combined 6 TDs through the air. If they can’t stop the Eagles pass attack, they won’t be able to load the box and stop either LeSean McCoy or Darren Sproles, who are excellent rushers.

Whatever they try to do defensively, I figure it’s going to be a long day for the 49ers defence. Their offense is talented, but I just can’t see them being able to keep up with the Eagles in this one.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings | Sunday 21:25

I was torn between a few selections for my final pick, but due to some injury uncertainties in the other matchups I have settled on the Falcons -3 over the Vikings.

As with the Jaguars, the Vikings got a bit of a spark last week when their rookie QB – Teddy Bridgewater – came into the game against the Saints. However, they are going up against a very potent Atlanta offense containing the league’s leading receiver in Julio Jones and the 2nd rated passer in Matt Ryan.

The Falcons struggled in their sole road game so far this season, but that was against a very, very good Cincinnati defence that didn’t let Matt Ryan get in any type of rhythm. Needless to say the Vikings defence is nowhere near as good as the Bengals’ and I doubt they’ll be able to hold up this Falcons offense as much.

The other problem that Minnesota has is that they won’t be able to “hide” their rookie QB behind the league’s best RB, Adrian Peterson, who is still out of the line-up. The Viking should put up points against an average Falcons defence, but Atlanta’s offense should be putting up considerably more.

Best Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers – San Diego Chargers to lead after every quarter (Evens Bet365)

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49’ers – Philadelphia Eagles to win (2/1 William Hill)

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings – Atlanta Falcons -3 (21/20 BetVictor)

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Tom got into betting after taking a marketing role at Sportingbet in 2009. He's since moved on to IT, but has remained within the industry. His passion in both betting and watching is the NFL, but also follows many other sports. Other interests include rock music, following the Patriots and being confused as to which Nottingham Forest team will show up each week.

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