NFL Tips | 29th September 2013

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Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) returns with more picks from the NFL after a winning Week 3.

 

Not a bad week last week with 2 winners from 3 selections (or 3 from 4 if you also took the Calvin Johnson bet in the Lions game), but I was burned by New York Jets beating the Buffalo Bills. I mentioned Jets DTs Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson in the pick and hoped that the Bills RBs would be able to get the job done against them – they did not.

 

It’s this Jets defense, in particular the play of those DTs, that makes me think that they are a huge price against the Tennessee Titans. Last week, Bills QB EJ Manuel dropped back 42 times and the Jets were able to pile up 8 sacks and a further 16 hits. Over half of Manuel’s dropbacks he was being hit and that is brilliant pressure – any QB is going to struggle getting hit that much.

The run defense is also good, ranking #6 in the league through 3 games after only allowing just under 80 yards a game to opposing rushers – against teams that all contained a RB that rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. If they can repeat these performances against Titans RB Chris Johnson, this will put them in a good position to win the game.

I still have my concerns about rookie QB Geno Smith, but with the way that their defense is playing, the New York Jetsat around 33/20 to beat the Tennessee Titans is too big a price to pass up. And for the more conservative punters, the Jets are +3.5 on the handicap and covered the line in their only loss so far this season against New England.

 

My next bet shouldn’t need to much explaining – I’m taking the Indianapolis Colts -8  to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars have been by far the worst team in the league this season, only scoring 26 points in their opening 3 games, while giving up 92.

The Colts meanwhile went on the road last week and beat one of the better teams in the league, the 49ers, by 20 points. And yet they only have a handicap of 8 points against the Jaguars. I really can’t see this one being that close.

 

While trying to find an over/under sacks market for the Kansas City Chiefs, what with them having the most sacks in the league and the fact they’re going up against the Giants who gave up 7 to Carolina last week, I came across another bet I like the look of – Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles to go over 80.5 yards rushing.

In their first 3 games, the Giants have given up 86, 93 and 120 yards to individual opposing rushers (a total of 388) and with Jamaal Charles arguably being the best RB they have faced so far, I think the trend of giving up big yards on the ground should continue.

Charles hasn’t yet eclipsed 100 yards rushing this season (although he has reached that total with rushing and receiving combined in each game), but new Head Coach Andy Reid appears to be steadily increasing his workload and building his new offense around him. This combined with going against the Giants porous run defence means it could be his breakout game on the ground.

 

Good luck to all having a punt!

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Tom got into betting after taking a marketing role at Sportingbet in 2009. He's since moved on to IT, but has remained within the industry. His passion in both betting and watching is the NFL, but also follows many other sports. Other interests include rock music, following the Patriots and being confused as to which Nottingham Forest team will show up each week.

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